edit Sep 2009 after week for Harrison/Moss/Owens

edit Feb 18 2009 (updating stats/links)

Continuing from the discussion of QB rating, one for WR is really much more clear cut.

The key record categories are yards, receptions, and TDs.

I would argue that T/G and Y/G are most relevant. Yardage really just falls out from the offense.

To reward longevity, we will treat receptions but only for this reason.

Unlike the QB, Superbowl appearances are not relevant, as they are too susceptible to factors out of his control.

The receiver contribution is via forward progress (1st downs, long drives into scoring position).

He certainly needs to be a threat, to open up a running game.

He can be more threatening in yards after the catch, though that stat is harder to come by.

To include receptions as a factor, why? The bottom line falls out of scoring (TD) and yards, whether ten 10-yd catches or two 50-yard. The latter allows for faster field movement and likely improved running effectiveness. I argue if you have the yards and TDs, the receptions fall out. I will provide analysis results for the correlation.

Thus, we have for a Jerry Rice,

As with the QB rating, scale YG by 100 and effectively each factor is weighted 50%. We incorporate receptions/1000.

De-weighting receptions some for Ki= 0.40,0.40,0.20 gives for Rice 0.40*0.65+0.40*76/100+0.20*1549/1000=0.87

Thus the rating formula (please credit Bill R McEachen) is:

rating= 0.40*TG + 0.40*YG/100 + 0.20*R/1000

Taking the "max" numbers as 0.8, 95 and 1550 (in deference to JR), we have divisor 1.0 to normalize for convenience.

Applying this rating yields in alphabetical order the top 10 or so to be:

Alworth, Brown, Carter, Harrison*, Holt*, Hutson, Irvin, Largent, Moss*, Owens*, and Rice (asterisk denotes active)

(HOF)Alworth 0.660 =0.4*85/136 + 0.4*10266/136/100 + 0.2*542/1000

Brown 0.610 =0.4*100/255 + 0.4*14934/255/100 + 0.2*1094/1000

Carter 0.680 = 0.4*130/234 + 0.4*13899/234/100 + 0.2*1101/1000

(T2)Harrison 0.797 =0.4*128/190 + 0.4*14580/190/100 + 0.2*1102/1000

Holt 0.679 =0.4*74/161 + 0.4*12829/161/100 + 0.2*881/1000

(HOF)Hutson 0.715 =0.4*99/116 + 0.4*7991/116/100 + 0.2*488/1000

(HOF)Irvin 0.613 =0.4*65/159 + 0.4*11904/159/100 + 0.2*750/1000

(HOF)Largent 0.626 = 0.4*100/200 + 0.4*13089/200/100 + 0.2*819/1000

(T2)Moss 0.798=0.4*135/173 + 0.4*13482/173/100 + 0.2*869/1000

(4)Owens 0.782 =0.4*140/191 + 0.4*14220/191/100 + 0.2*956/1000

Reed 0.565 =0.4*87/234 + 0.4*13198/234/100 + 0.2*951/1000

(1)Rice 0.872= 0.4*197/303 + 0.4*22895/303/100 + 0.2*1549/1000

purely on ranking, this yields from best  Rice, Moss/Harrison,Owens, and Hutson

other WRs for comparison:

(HOF)Monk 0.537 =0.4*68/224+0.4*12721/224/100+0.2*940/1000

(HOF)Lofton 0.522 =0.4*75/233+0.4*14004/233/100+0.2*764/1000

(HOF,TE)Winslow 0.521 =0.4*45/109+0.4*6741/109/100+0.2*541/1000

(HOF)Hayes 0.514 = 0.4*71/132+0.4*7414/132/100+0.2*371/1000

Jefferson 0.479=0.4*47/102+0.4*5714/102/100+0.2*351/1000

(HOF)Stallworth 0.472 =0.4*63/165+0.4*8723/165/100+0.2*537/1000

(HOF) Joiner 0.462=0.4*65/239+0.4*12146/239/100+0.2*750/1000

GWashington 0.444 = 0.4*60/140+0.4*6856/140/100+0.2*385/1000

Branch 0.436 =0.4*67/183+0.4*8685/183/100+0.2*501/1000

(HOF)Swann 0.435 =0.4*51/115+0.4*5462/115/100+0.2*336/1000

Pearson 0.421 =0.4*48/156+0.4*7822/156/100+0.2*489/1000

grouping a bit:

Rice

Harrison*/Moss*/Owens*

Hutson

Carter/Holt*/Alworth

Largent

Irvin/Brown

My personal opinion is to expect Rice to come out rated at the top, and this does happen with this rating. Considering the numerics, several players are all headed to the Hall of Fame, including Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Tim Brown, Jerry Rice, Harrison, Randy Moss, and Owens. John Jefferson rates better than some existing HOF members and should be strongly considered. Cliff Branch is a slightly harder sell but has numerics akin to Lynn Swann.

*Receiver Rating

I would opine a rating is imperfect if Rice doesn't come out CLEARLY on top. There are fewer factors applicable for a WR rating than the QB rating. I would propose the following rating formula which has 1.0 as its normalizing divisor ("perfect") for convenience.

Using the proposed rating on available stats gives the following (for some notable NFL receivers):

NFL_topWRs.svg as of end of 2008 season.  Spreadsheet WR.xls

Examining the stats, the typical Hall of Fame receiver will exceed the following criteria:

catches>500, yards>8000, TDs>60, games>150 and rating>0.60. Often the HOF receiver has a HOF quarterback on the throwing end. The only eligible receivers listed above as of yet unselected (but a nominee) who meet ALL criteria are Cris Carter and Tim Brown.

As of 2006, there are 19 modern era receivers elected to the Hall of Fame, alphabetically,

Alworth,Berry,Biletnikoff,Fears,Hirsch,Irvin,Joiner,Largent,Lavelli,Lofton,Maynard,McDonald,Mitchell,Monk,Pihos,Stallworth,Swann,Taylor and Warfield.

Regarding potential members, there will be many strong candidates which may include in addition to the previous names, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Tim Brown.

Elite Leaders (WR,career)

only 4 w/ Points (receiving)>750 Rice,Owens*,Moss*,Carter,Harrison*

only 3 w/ Games >250 Rice,TBrown,Fryar (303,255,**)

only 5 w/ Receptions/game 5 or more Harrison*,Holt*,Rice,Moss*,Owens* (5.8,5.4,5.1,5.03,5.02)

only 5 w/ Yards per game>75 Holt*,Moss*,Harrison*,Rice,Owens* (79.7,77.9,76.7,75.6,74.5)

only 4 w/ Rating>0.75 (see earlier) Rice,Harrison*,Moss*,Owens* (0.872,0.799,0.798,0.782)

only 1 w/ TDs>150 Rice

only 1 w/ Yards >15000 Rice

only 4 w/ Receptions>1000 Rice,Carter, TBrown, Harrison*

Harrison is near 15000 yds (needs 420)

Owens is near 1000 receptions (needs 44) and 150 TDs (needs 10)

TBrown 66 YDs short of 15000 career

TOwens had a streal of 185 consecuive games with at least 1 reception

thru 2008 regular season min. 100 games

asterisk denotes active

the above is hoped to be correct, please (& report) inintended errors

my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/