using my ratings, produces the following QB ratings thru the first 4 games
(for ref, see http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=1&statisticPositionCategory=QUARTERBACK&season=2009&seasonType=REG)
QB Rating rank (mine) NFL rank TG TI YG %compl
PManning (IND) 1 1 2.25 6 334 70.8
Favre (MINN) 2 3 2 9 209 69.1
Brees (NO) 3 2
Flacco (BAL) 4 10 2 5 276 62.9
EManning 5 4
Schaub (HOU) 5 7
Rivers (SD) 6 12 1.5 3 311 58.7
Roethlisberger 7 8
Rodgers (GB) 8 5
Let's examine some of the more diverse (Rivers,Flacco vs Favre,PManning)
Essentially the NFL rating is penalizing Rivers and Flacco for a reduced % completion. Favre's lower yardage production is not penalized.
IND and SD differ by only 5 total offensive points, though Manning's %compl is 71 vs Rivers' 59
I would ask what leads to scores, yardage or %completion? Yards bring scoring position and thus points
The shame is Rivers is a top 5 rated QB, while the NFL doesn't place him in the top 3rd of quarterbacks (12th out of 32)
Let's look at offensive points for the QB's teams with 100+ points thru the 1st 4 games:
QB yards/game %completion(RND)
NO 144 258 67
BAL 124 276 63
MINN 118 209 68
NYG 107 260 63
IND 106 334 71
CHI 105 225 64
GB 104 275 61
SF 102 175 (outlier) 62
SD 101 311 59
Now, if we order the QBs by highest %completion, the associated teams in order are
PITT,IND,MIA,MIN,NO,SEA,ATL,ARZ,WASH,PHI which contains only 3 of the top scoring teams above
Using my rating, the 0-1 ratings for various QBs is:
Brees 0.500 (0.20*(27+2)/11+0.20*(27-9)/100+0.20*0.681+0.20*(3000+28)/11/100)/2.5 (11 games)approx
Rodgers 0.494 (0.20*(22+3)/11+0.20*(22-5)/100+0.20*0.655+0.20*(3136+247)/11/100)/2.5 (11 games)
PManning 0.489 (0.20*(24+0)/11+0.20*(24-11)/100+0.20*0.698+0.20*(3415-3)/11/100)/2.5 (11 games)
Brady 0.480 (0.20*(20+1)/10+0.20*(20-6)/100+0.20*0.664+0.20*(3049+43)/10/100)/2.5 (10 games)
Schaub 0.447 (0.20*(21+0)/11+0.20*(21-11)/100+0.20*0.678+0.20*(3142+51)/11/100)/2.5 (11 games)
Favre 0.451 (0.20*(24+0)/11+0.20*(24-3)/100+0.20*0.680+0.20*(2829-2)/11/100)/2.5 (11 games)
Rivers 0.424 (0.20*(19+1)/11+0.20*(19-6)/100+0.20*0.642+0.20*(2938+46)/11/100)/2.5 (11 games)
Roethlisberger 0.424 (0.20*(14+2)/9+0.20*(14-8)/100+0.20*0.679+0.20*(2469+38)/9/100)/2.5 (9 games)
Flacco 0.385 (0.20*(12+0)/8+0.20*(12-7)/100+0.20*0.649+0.20*(2044+45)/8/100)/2.5 (8 games)
EManning 0.370 (0.20*(13+0)/8+0.20*(13-8)/100+0.20*0.579+0.20*(1855+40)/8/100)/2.5 (8 games)
Soon you can play with my javascript form for the rating HERE (NOT YET!!! has bug): JAVASC~1.HTML (note: the shown Montana xample is incorrect)
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