Math related

 

RBRatings

Page history last edited by Bill McEachen 1 mo ago

last edit: Feb 18 2009

this is the 3rd of 3 (QB,WR) for NFL Rushing

the rating is simple, rewarding scoring, production and durability

It rates in the top 11 in alphabetical order:

Shaun Alexander,Marcus Allen,Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson,Marshall Faulk,Curtis Martin,Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Billy Sims, Emmitt Smith, Tomlinson*

One must use discretion when ratings are within a certain range (a 0.89 is not inherently a better RB than a 0.88!)

 

Alexander 0.768 =( 0.3*(100+12)/96 + 0.5*(9453+1520)/96/25 + 0.2*2187/1000 )/4   4 games short of 100

(HOF)Allen 0.741 =( 0.3*(123+21)/168 + 0.5*(12243+5411)/168/25 + 0.2*3022/1000 )/4

(HOF)Brown 0.826 =( 0.3*(106+20)/118 + 0.5*(12312+2499)/118/25 + 0.2*2359/1000 )/4

Dickerson 0.769 =( 0.3*(90+6)/136 + 0.5*(13259+2137)/136/25 + 0.2*2996/1000 )/4

Faulk 0.821 =( 0.3*(100+36)/156 + 0.5*(12279+6875)/156/25 + 0.2*2836/1000 )/4

Martin 0.746 =( 0.3*(90+10)/166 + 0.5*(14101+3329)/166/25 + 0.2*3518/1000 )/4

(HOF)Payton 0.821 =( 0.3*(110+15)/184 + 0.5*(16726+4538)/184/25 + 0.2*3838/1000 )/4

(HOF)Sanders 0.810 = ( 0.3*(99+10)/151 + 0.5*(15269+2921)/151/25 + 0.2*3062/1000 )/4

(HOF)Simpson 0.657 = ( 0.3*(61+14)/135 + 0.5*(11236+2142)/135/25 + 0.2*2404/1000 )/4

Sims 0.736 =( 0.3*(42+5)/58 + 0.5*(5106+2072)/58/25 + 0.2*1131/1000 )/4   insufficient games

(HOF)Smith 0.773= ( 0.3*(164+11)/219 + 0.5*(18355+3224)/219/25 + 0.2*4409/1000 )/4

Tomlinson  0.929 =( 0.3*(126+15)/111 + 0.5*(11760+3801)/111/25 + 0.2*2657/1000 )/4

James*  0.743=( 0.3*(80+11)/142 + 0.5*(12151+3345)/142/25 + 0.2*2993/1000 )/4

 

by pure ranking, this yields Tomlinson,Brown/Faulk/Payton,and Sanders

 

others for contrast:

(HOF)Dorsett 0.727 =( 0.3*(77+13)/152 + 0.5*(12739+3554)/152/25 + 0.2*2936/1000 )/4

Watters 0.703 =( 0.3*(78+13)/142 + 0.5*(10643+4248)/142/25 + 0.2*2622/1000 )/4

Craig 0.633 =( 0.3*(56+17)/133 + 0.5*(8189+4911)/133/25 + 0.2*1991/1000)/4

(HOF)Riggins 0.629 =( 0.3*(104+12)/157 + 0.5*(11352+2090)/157/25 + 0.2*2916/1000 )/4

(HOF)Harris 0.627=( 0.3*(91+9)/166 + 0.5*(12120+2287)/166/25 + 0.2*2949/1000 )/4

Walker 0.616 =( 0.3*(61+21)/138 + 0.5*(8225+4859)/138/25 + 0.2*1954/1000 )/4 (lacking USFL stats)

Davis 0.723 =( 0.3*(60+5)/77 + 0.5*(7607+1280)/77/25 + 0.2*1655/1000 )/4  insufficient games

 

grouping a bit gives:

Tomlinson*

Brown/Payton/Faulk*/Sanders

Smith/Dickerson/Alexander*

Martin/Allen/Sims/Dorsett/Davis*/James*

 

The rating (please credit Bill R McEachen as the author)is

[0.30TG +0.5YG/25 + 0.2*C/1000]/4.0] where TG=TDs per game, YG=yds per game and C=carries.  Games are games started (except Simpson,CHill)

Designed for "1" being ideal/max. RB.xls as of end 2008

Minimum 100 games is applied (Mercury Morris, BrockingtonTDavis,Sims do not meet).

As far as the Hall of Fame, a player appears to be a "lock" if TG >0.9, 112 YG, more than 3000 carries. Presuming Smith, Faulk and Martin get in, every rusher above a 0.75 rating is in, and several below 0.75.  From the above Terrell Davis deserves consideration, with YG=115,TG=0.84

For HOF evaluation, side-by-side recommended is:

Payton, Faulk and Brown vs Dickerson,Smith

Alexander,Barber,George,Barber,Bettis vs Campbell,Allen,Riggins

Possible candidates to consider from the crop of active and recently retired include E Smith, Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, M Faulk, R Watters, S Alexander,T Thomas, Tiki Barber, Eddie George and Jerome Bettis in no order.

Elite Leaders (RB,career)

only 4 w/ Receiving yards>6000 Faulk,Centers,R Harmon, L Moore

only 5 w/ Rating>=0.80 (see earlier) Tomlinson*,JBrown,Payton,Faulk,Sanders

only 1 w/ TDs per game>1 JBrown

only 5 w/ Yards per game>110 Tomlinson*,JBrown,Sanders,James*,Payton

only 3 w/ Total points>800 Smith,MAllen,Faulk

only 3 w/ Carries >3500 Smith,Payton,Curtis Martin

only 3 w/ Rush yards>15000 Smith,Payton,Sanders

only 2 w/ games > 200 Smith,MAllen

(100 games min.) as of 2007 regular season

  • denotes active as of 2009

 

James is close to 0.75 rating (at 0.743)

the above is correct to my knowledge, please forgive (& report) unintended errors

my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

Comments (0)

You don't have permission to comment on this page.