last edit: Feb 18 2009
this is the 3rd of 3 (QB,WR) for NFL Rushing
the rating is simple, rewarding scoring, production and durability
It rates in the top 11 in alphabetical order:
Shaun Alexander,Marcus Allen,Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson,Marshall Faulk,Curtis Martin,Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Billy Sims, Emmitt Smith, Tomlinson*
One must use discretion when ratings are within a certain range (a 0.89 is not inherently a better RB than a 0.88!)
Alexander 0.768 =( 0.3*(100+12)/96 + 0.5*(9453+1520)/96/25 + 0.2*2187/1000 )/4 4 games short of 100
(HOF)Allen 0.741 =( 0.3*(123+21)/168 + 0.5*(12243+5411)/168/25 + 0.2*3022/1000 )/4
(HOF)Brown 0.826 =( 0.3*(106+20)/118 + 0.5*(12312+2499)/118/25 + 0.2*2359/1000 )/4
Dickerson 0.769 =( 0.3*(90+6)/136 + 0.5*(13259+2137)/136/25 + 0.2*2996/1000 )/4
Faulk 0.821 =( 0.3*(100+36)/156 + 0.5*(12279+6875)/156/25 + 0.2*2836/1000 )/4
Martin 0.746 =( 0.3*(90+10)/166 + 0.5*(14101+3329)/166/25 + 0.2*3518/1000 )/4
(HOF)Payton 0.821 =( 0.3*(110+15)/184 + 0.5*(16726+4538)/184/25 + 0.2*3838/1000 )/4
(HOF)Sanders 0.810 = ( 0.3*(99+10)/151 + 0.5*(15269+2921)/151/25 + 0.2*3062/1000 )/4
(HOF)Simpson 0.657 = ( 0.3*(61+14)/135 + 0.5*(11236+2142)/135/25 + 0.2*2404/1000 )/4
Sims 0.736 =( 0.3*(42+5)/58 + 0.5*(5106+2072)/58/25 + 0.2*1131/1000 )/4 insufficient games
(HOF)Smith 0.773= ( 0.3*(164+11)/219 + 0.5*(18355+3224)/219/25 + 0.2*4409/1000 )/4
Tomlinson* 0.817 =( 0.3*(131+15)/134 + 0.5*(12145+3841)/134/25 + 0.2*2772/1000 )/4
James* 0.725=( 0.3*(80+11)/148 + 0.5*(12246+3364)/148/25 + 0.2*3028/1000 )/4
by pure ranking, this yields Brown/Faulk/Payton,Tomlinson,and Sanders
others for contrast:
(HOF)Dorsett 0.727 =( 0.3*(77+13)/152 + 0.5*(12739+3554)/152/25 + 0.2*2936/1000 )/4
Watters 0.703 =( 0.3*(78+13)/142 + 0.5*(10643+4248)/142/25 + 0.2*2622/1000 )/4
Craig 0.633 =( 0.3*(56+17)/133 + 0.5*(8189+4911)/133/25 + 0.2*1991/1000)/4
(HOF)Riggins 0.629 =( 0.3*(104+12)/157 + 0.5*(11352+2090)/157/25 + 0.2*2916/1000 )/4
(HOF)Harris 0.627=( 0.3*(91+9)/166 + 0.5*(12120+2287)/166/25 + 0.2*2949/1000 )/4
Walker 0.616 =( 0.3*(61+21)/138 + 0.5*(8225+4859)/138/25 + 0.2*1954/1000 )/4 (lacking USFL stats)
Davis 0.723 =( 0.3*(60+5)/77 + 0.5*(7607+1280)/77/25 + 0.2*1655/1000 )/4 insufficient games
grouping a bit gives:
Brown/Payton/Faulk/Sanders/Tomlinson
Smith/Dickerson/Alexander
Martin/Allen/Sims/Dorsett/Davis*/James*
The rating (please credit Bill R McEachen as the author)is
[0.30TG +0.5YG/25 + 0.2*C/1000]/4.0] where TG=TDs per game, YG=yds per game and C=carries. Games are games started (except Simpson,CHill)
Designed for "1" being ideal/max. RB.xls as of end 2008
Minimum 100 games is applied (Mercury Morris, Brockington,TDavis,Sims do not meet).
As far as the Hall of Fame, a player appears to be a "lock" if TG >0.9, 112 YG, more than 3000 carries. Presuming Smith, Faulk and Martin get in, every rusher above a 0.75 rating is in, and several below 0.75.
For HOF evaluation, side-by-side recommended is:
Payton, Faulk and Brown vs Dickerson,Smith
Alexander,Barber,George,Barber,Bettis vs Campbell,Allen,Riggins
Possible candidates to consider from the crop of active and recently retired include Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, M Faulk, R Watters, S Alexander,T Thomas, Tiki Barber, Eddie George and Jerome Bettis in no order.
Elite Leaders (RB,career)
only 2 w/ Receiving yards>6000 Faulk,Centers (6875,6797)
only 5 w/ Rating>=0.80 (see earlier) JBrown,Payton,Faulk,Tomlinson*,Sanders (0.826,0.821,0.821,0.817,0.810)
only 1 w/ TDs per game>1 JBrown (1.07)
only 5 w/ Yards per game>110 JBrown,Tomlinson*,Sanders,James*,Payton (125.5,119.3,118.9,**,112)
only 3 w/ Total points>800 Smith,MAllen,Faulk (1050,864,816)
only 3 w/ Carries >3500 Smith,Payton,Curtis Martin (4409,3838,3518)
only 3 w/ Rush yards>15000 Smith,Payton,Sanders (18355,16726,15269)
only 2 w/ games > 200 Smith,MAllen (226,222)
only 2 w/ yards/game > 100 JBrown, APeterson* (104.3,103.0)
only 4 w/ yards/game >= 5.1 BoJackson,JBrown, MMorris,APeterson* (5.4,5.2,5.1,5.1)
(100 games min.) as of 2007 regular season
- denotes active as of 2009
the above is correct to my knowledge, please forgive (& report) unintended errors
my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/
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