Nov 16,21,25,29 gen'l update of key active players

 Oct 9 add 2009 stats page (QBs) NFL 2009 Stats

 Oct 4 add "best" years via http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

update Sep 30 2009 update Favre/Manning/Brady/Warner/McNabb ie 1st 3 weeks

update Feb 18 2009 to prep image for WikiCommons

 

Alternate Rating

This rating could be termed a "HOF" rating for Hall of Fame.  It was developed without bias before treating stats.

It addresses some of the criticisms/flaws of the existing passer rating.

It hopes to reward the areas of winning, offensive production, efficiency while penalizing mistakes, and being an "impact" player.

The factors considered are:

%completion PC

SuperBowl appearances SBA

SuperBowl wins SBW

Touchdown-to-Interception margin TI

Yardage per game (all)YG

Touchdowns per game (all)TG

The actual rating formula is (please credit Bill R McEachen):

 

The top 12 or so performers by this rating in alphabetical order are (after week 8 2009):

Aikman,Bradshaw,Brady*,Elway,Favre*,Griese,Kelly,PManning*,Marino,McNabb*,Montana,Staubach,Warner* and Young (asterisk denotes active)

(9)Aikman 0.557 =(0.20*(165+9)/165+0.20*(165-141)/100+0.20*0.615+0.20*(32942+1016)/165/100+0.15*3+0.05*3)/2.5

(3)Bradshaw 0.640 =(0.20*(212+32)/158+0.20*(212-210)/100+0.20*0.519+0.20*(27989+2257)/158/100+0.15*4+0.05*4)/2.5

(2)Brady 0.756 =(0.20*(216+6)/120+0.20*(216-92)/100+0.20*0.633+0.20*(29185+567)/120/100+0.15*3+0.05*4)/2.5

(T4)Elway 0.630 =(0.20*(300+33)/231+0.20*(300-226)/100+0.20*0.569+0.20*(51475+3407)/231/100+0.15*2+0.05*5)/2.5

(T4)Favre 0.632  =(0.20*(488+14)/280+0.20*(488-313)/100+0.20*0.619+0.20*(68001+1826)/280/100+0.15*1+0.05*2)/2.5

Griese 0.485 = (0.20*(192+7)/151+0.20*(192-172)/100+0.20*0.562+0.20*(25092+994)/151/100+0.15*2+0.05*3)/2.5

Kelly 0.482 =(0.20*(237+7)/160+0.20*(237-175)/100+0.20*0.601+0.20*(35467+1049)/160/100+0.15*0+0.05*4)/2.5

(3)Manning 0.649 = (0.20*(353+17)/185+0.20*(353-172)/100+0.20*0.647+0.20*(48500+715)/185/100+0.15*1+0.05*1)/2.5

(10)Marino 0.550 = (0.20*(420+9)/240+0.20*(420-252)/100+0.20*0.594+0.20*(61361+87)/240/100+0.15*0+0.05*1)/2.5

(11)McNabb 0.498=(0.20*(208+27)/136+0.20*(208-95)/100+0.20*0.590+0.20*(31249+3187)/136/100+0.15*0+0.05*1)/2.5

(1)Montana 0.827 = (0.20*(273+20)/164+0.20*(273-139)/100+0.20*0.632+0.20*(40551+1676)/164/100+0.15*4+0.05*4)/2.5

(8)Staubach 0.577 =(0.20*(153+20)/114+0.20*(153-109)/100+0.20*0.570+0.20*(22700+2264)/114/100+0.15*2+0.05*4)/2.5

(7) Warner 0.588 =(0.20*(200+3)/110+0.20*(200-125)/100+0.20*0.655+0.20*(31106+279)/110/100+0.15*1+0.05*2)/2.5 

(6)Young 0.594 =(0.20*(232+43)/143+0.20*(232-107)/100+0.20*0.643+0.20*(33124+4239)/143/100+0.15*1+0.05*1)/2.5

 

this yields an ordered ranking of Montana,Brady*,Manning*/Bradshaw,Favre*,Elway (half are active!).  Every eligible player above is in the HOF.

 

others for reference (as of Feb 2009):

[still ineligible] Tony Romo* 0.477=(0.20*(85+3)/41+0.20*(85-49)/100+0.20*0.632+0.20*(11297+297)/41/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

(HOF)Unitas 0.464 =(0.20*(290+13)/186+0.20*(290-253)/100+0.20*0.546+0.20*(40239+1777)/186/100+0.15*1+0.05*1)/2.5

(HOF)Tarkenton 0.461 =(0.20*(342+32)/239+0.20*(342-266)/100+0.20*0.570+0.20*(47003+3674)/239/100+0.15*0+0.05*3)/2.5

Drew Brees* 0.456=(0.20*(192+7)/116+0.20*(192-108)/100+0.20*0.642+0.20*(29000+477)/116/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

Cunningham 0.454 =(0.20*(207+35)/135+0.20*(207-134)/100+0.20*0.566+0.20*(29979+4928)/135/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

Garcia 0.432 =(0.20*(161+26)/116+0.20*(161-83)/100+0.20*0.616+0.20*(25537+2142)/116/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

(HOF)Moon 0.418=(0.20*(291+22)/203+0.20*(291-233)/100+0.20*0.584+0.20*(49325+1736)/203/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

Krieg 0.402=(0.20*(261+13)/175+0.20*(261-199)/100+0.20*0.585+0.20*(38147+1261)/175/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

(HOF)Fouts 0.385 =(0.20*(254+13)/171+0.20*(254-242)/100+0.20*0.588+0.20*(43040+476)/171/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

Chad Pennington*  0.384=(0.20*(102+7)/77+0.20*(102-63)/100+0.20*0.660+0.20*(17567+458)/77/100+0.15*0+0.05*0)/2.5

Anderson 0.361 =(0.20*(197+20)/172+0.20*(197-160)/100+0.20*0.593+0.20*(32838+2220)/172/100+0.15*0+0.05*1)/2.5

 

Now, one can strip off the Superbowl portion to obtain a more conventional "pure" passer rating.  I list these here vs the normalized current rating, scaled to match.

Pure (proposed)  Current

(4)Montana, 0.507    0.583 (5)

(3)Young,  0.514   0.611      (1)

(2)Marino, 0.530   0.546    (7)

Kelly, 0.402        0.533

Elway, 0.410     0.505

Aikmann,  0.317    0.515

Bradshaw, 0.320    0.448

Staubach, 0.377    0.527

Fouts, 0.385  0.507

(5)Brady*, 0.484    0.587   (4)

Moon,  0.418   0.511

(1)Manning*, 0.558    0.598   (2)

(3)Favre*, 0.515    0.539   (9)

Cunningham, 0.454

Griese 0.305    0.487

(7)McNabb* 0.474    0.543  (8)

(5)Warner*, 0.484   0.593   (3)

(9)Garcia*,  0.432   0.553   (6)

Krieg, 0.402   0.515

Anderson 0.361

 

group these, we have (Brady&Manning will move higher over the years)

Manning*,Marino

Young,Favre*

Montana

Brady*,Warner*

McNabb*

Tarkenton,Unitas,Garcia*,Cunningham

 

If I  had time, I would do up a "best season" listing (see end), obviously for QBs that made Superbowls and rank highly.  This would include Manning,Brady,Favre,Elway,Tarkenton,Staubach,Bradshaw,Montana,Young,Warner,Unitas, and Kelly among others.  One can also easily do up "what if" scenarios like adding 5 more seasons of stats to Staubach for his missed years for Navy service

 

There are infinite ways to formulate a rating. Depending on specific factor formating, one can skew results.

The rating including weights was developed prior to applying it to actual QB data.

The rationale behind the factors follows but certainly one needs to see the ratings reflect general consensus of the historical best.

This would include HOF quarterbacks, and certainly Steve Young and Joe Montana should likely be near the top.

QB.xls as of 2008

%completion

It seems appropo to reward some indicator of effectiveness. It speaks to ability to produce drives and 1st downs.

Superbowls

One is credited for making it to the Superbowl, credited additionally for winning

The reason is to reward results.

TD-INT

This factor as a difference, rewards the "net" result of scoring over error.

Longevity is implicitly rewarded, where it wouldn't be if formed as TD/INT for example.

Yard/game

One is rewarded for offensive production, without undue credit for longevity.

TD/game

One is rewarded for offensive points, without undue credit for longevity.

The link here is to a file circa Oct 2006 computing the rating for HOF quarterbacks as well as some other standouts.

The normalized, existing ratings are superimposed for comparison. In general, the new rating times 158.3 converts to the equivalent existing rating.

"Fixes"

The alternate rating has no artificial cap on individual factors.

It also incorporates a QB's running/scrambling skills.

It is normalized to "1" being perfect (or 100).

However, it still applies "arbitary" (but reasonable) weights to the indiv factors.

The rating's max is not a fixed number as with the existing rating, though it has been developed so as to attempt to come as close as practical to never seeing a value above 1, which could require all ratings to be re-normalized.

Winning percentage itself is NOT a factor, as a team's performance goes beyond the QB. Of course, there will be some correlation of WP to QB rating that falls out.

Additionally, a great team may allow a QB to excel more than a talented QB lacking a solid supporting cast. This goes towards my separate discussion of how one might adjust base career rating for team success. Easy examples are Bradshaw throwing to his HOF receivers Swann and Stallworth, as well as having HOF members Jack Lambert, Mike Webster, Joe Greene, Mel Blount and Franco Harris.

Excluded factors

As explained, TOTALs in general have been avoided for most factors, as "putting in time" by itself gives larger counts.

HOF teammates for QBs:

Bradshaw - Jack Lambert,Mike Webster,Joe Greene,Mel Blount,Franco Harris,Swann,Stallworth

Montana/Young -(Rice), (HM Taylor)

Aikman -Irvin,(Emmitt Smith)

Brady -TBD

Staubach - Randy White, Dorsett, (HM Pearson)

Kelly - (HM Thurman Thomas)

Griese - Larry Czonka (HM Mercury Morris, Soloman)

Favre - Reggie White, Lofton (HM Jefferson)

PManning -MHarrison,tbd

Unitas - ??

Fouts -Joiner (HM Jefferson)

Tarkenton -Deacon Jones, Alan Page

Moon - ??

Jurgensen - ??

Marino -

Stabler - Howie Long, (HM Cliff Branch,Ray Guy)

Cunningham - ??

Some of basic tests for any rating include:

would a "hot" player of short duration shoot to an artificially high rating?

for example, if the rating used pure ratios (non-timed based) Y/G,T/G etc,

a QB that played for 2 years putting up stellar ratios would compare favorably against the grizzled veteran of 20 seasons with the same stats.

My personal opinion is to expect Young and Montana to come out rated at the top, and this does happen with this rating. Considering the numerics, Favre,Manning and Brady are all headed to the Hall of Fame (1st ballot). Cunningham rates better than some existing HOF members and should be elected.  Garcia also have impressive stats.

Elite Leaders (QB,career, as of 11/27/2009 season, games typ.=games started)

6 w/ %completion>=64% Pennington*,Warner*,Manning*,Young,Brees*,Rodgers*  (0.661, 0.655, 0.647, 0.643, 0.643,0.641)

3 w/ TD-INT differential >150 Manning*,Favre*,Marino,Montana (181,175,168,**)

4 w/ Rush TD>34 Young,McNair,Grogan,Cunningham (43,36,35,35)

4 w/ Total Points>2000 Favre*,Marino,Manning*,Tarkenton (3012,2574,2244,2244)

5 w/ Rush yards>3500 Cunningham,Young,Vick*,Tarkenton,McNair (4928,4239,3674,3590,**)

4 w/ Total TD>350 Favre*,Marino,Manning*,Tarkenton (502,429,374,374)

3 w/ TD/INT ratio >=2.0 Brady*, McNabb*, Manning* (2.36,2.19,2.03)

4 w/ games played>240 JMarshall(non-QB), Favre*,Morrall,Tarkenton,Marino (282,280,255,246,242)

3 w/ TD per game started>=1.8 Manning*,Brady*,Warner* (2.00,1.85,1.81)

4 w/ Yards per game>=250 Manning*,Brees*,Warner*,Marino (266,263,263,254)

5 w/ Total yards>50000 Favre*,Marino,Elway,Moon,Tarkenton (69827,61448,54882,51061,50677)

4 w/ (TD-INT) per game started >=0.90 Young,Brady*,Manning*,Montana (1.17,1.03,0.97,0.94)

4 w/ pass completions >=4000 Favre*,Marino,Manning*,Elway (5968,4967,4137,4123)

3 w/ pass attempts >=7000 Favre*,Marino,Elway (9638,8358,7250)

4 w/ points/game avg >=11 Manning*,Brady*,Young,Warner* (12.0,**,11.5,11.1)

only 3 w/ 140+ game victories Favre*,Elway,Marino (179,148,147)

W-L percentage >65% Brady*,Staubach,Montana,Bradshaw,Manning*,Young (77.5,75,71,68.8,68.4,65.7)

W-L percentage >70% Brady*,Staubach,Montana (78,75,71)

most 4th quarter comebacks -I recommend seeing this link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3392, NOT straightfwd

13 or more non-losing seasons - Favre*,Unitas,Elway  (17,14,14)

4 w/ SuperBowl wins >=3 - Bradshaw,Montana,Brady*,Aikman (4,4,3,3)

 

Favre just shy of  11 PG (10.8), and 1.8 TG (1.79).  Favre is only QB with 500+ TDs total  and 3000+ total points (and soon 70000+ total yds)

Favre can move ahead of Jim Hart games started with 2 more wins in the last 5 games of 2009

He will pass Jim Marshall for games started by end 2009 and has a chance to move past Bradshaw to 3rd best rating (mine)

PManning about 500 yds shy of 50000 total (should get in 2009) and may move ahead of Bradshaw in win%

McNabb win % is 64.6 just shy of 65%

Elway just shy of 2000 pts (1998)

Brady,Favre* shy of 250 YG (245,245)

Montana rounds to 2.0 TD/INT ratio, Garcia* just shy (1.94)

Tony Romo win % is 69.2 (not yet eligible).  He also is at 2.1 TG and 282 YG

Philip Rivers win% is 68.8 (not yet eligible).  He is at ~ 2.0 TG

Brad Johnson, Jeff Garcia*,Aikman, just shy of 62% pass completion (61.7,61.6,61.5)

There are a few unusual stats for some "name" QBs:

 

list of most HOF QBs: Kelly,Marino,Elway,Aikman,Unitas,Tarkenton,Moon,Montana,Young,Fouts,Griese,Staubach,Bradshaw,Namath,

Dawson,Starr,Tittle,Layne,Jurgensen,Blanda

other QBs of interest: Krieg,Stabler,Brian Sipe,Bert Jones,Kenny Anderson,Danny White,Craig Morton, John Brodie, Archie Manning,

 

misc comments:

Aikman,Bradshaw,Brady,Montana got the rings; obviously Montana&Bradshaw had great supporting casts (Bradshaw threw interceptions as often as TDs)

sure locks for HOF include Favre,Manning,Brady,Cunningham and McNabb should be

one questionable HOF pick is Joe Namath

Montana was just the premier franchise QB, with great supporting cast and infectious, gritty attitude

Staubach is remarkable for his career interruption, with a 75% winning%

Young one of best ever "backup"QBs ever, his NFL&USFL stats great (as is Moon's NFL&CFL stats)

Supreme passers include Marino, Manning, Kelly;  Manning should end up with most passing records (he is first in many paces)

Favre,Elway are go-for broke types, capable of lots of good, with some bad, with strong arms

Unitas,Tarkenton rare breed with great all around skills

under-rated right now include Garcia,McNabb,Krieg,Warner

solid QBs NOT in HOF incl Kenny Anderson,Jim Hart,Brian Sipe,Bert Jones,Dave Krieg, Danny White

 

As an aside, some of the best rating years according to http://www.pro-football-reference.com/  are  (130+)

 

Starr             141  1968  153   1966  (won SB in Jan '67, Jan '68)

Cunningham  134  1998

Warner          136 1999   132   2001 (won SB Jan '00, lost Feb '02)

Kelly              135  1990 (lost SB Jan '91 thru Jan '94)

Unitas            135  1957 (won SB Jan '71)

Favre             130   1995 (won SB Jan '97, lost SB Jan '98)

Tarkenton      132    1973  (lost SB in Jan '74, Jan'75, Jan '77)

Brady             148   2007  (lost Feb '08 and won others)

Brees             (139  2009)   131  2004

Elway, Griese none

McNabb        131  2004

Marino           141  1984 (lost SB Jan '85)

PManning        151  2004 (won SB Feb '07)

Staubach       144   1971   133  1973   132  1979 (won SB Jan '72, Jan '78)

Montana       149   1989   136   1987  134  1984 (won SB Jan '82, Jan '85, Jan '89, Jan '90)

Young           160   1987   159   1989   147  1994   142  1992   135  1991   134  1997  (won SB Jan '95)

 

So, for matchups, this says one would use Young's '87,'89,'94 season, Manning's '04, Montana '89, Staubach '71, Starr '68.  Warner '99 Cunningham '98,

   Favre '95-'97, Unitas '57, Brady '07, Tarkenton '73,'74,'76, Marino's '84, McNabb's '04 and Kelly '90-'94.  Aikman ,Griese,Elway SB years

We scale stats as needed to a full 1 games, in descending order:

 

Montana '89  0.634=(0.20*(26+3)/13*16/13+0.20*(26-8)/100+0.20*0.702+0.20*(3521+227)/13*16/13/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 33)

 

Marino '84  0.625=(0.20*(48+7)/16+0.20*(48-17)/100+0.20*0.642+0.20*(5084-7)/16/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 23)

Manning '06  0.620=(0.20*(49+0)/16+0.20*(49-10)/100+0.20*0.676+0.20*(4557+38)/16/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 30)

Brady '07   0.614=(0.20*(50+2)/16+0.20*(50-8)/100+0.20*0.689+0.20*(4806+98)/16/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 30)

Unitas '57   0.575=(0.20*(24+1)/12*16/12+0.20*(24-17)/100+0.20*0.571+0.20*(2550+171)/12*16/12/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 24)

Warner '99  0.567=(0.20*(41+1)/16+0.20*(41-13)/100+0.20*0.651+0.20*(4353+92)/16/100+0.15)/2.5 (age 28)

Young '94  0.559=(0.20*(35+7)/16+0.20*(35-10)/100+0.20*0.703+0.20*(3969+293)/16/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 33)

Cunningham '98 0.547=(0.20*(34+1)/14*16/14+0.20*(34-10)/100+0.20*0.609+0.20*(3704+132)/14*16/14/100+0)/2.5  (age 35)

Moon '90  0.544=(0.20*(33+2)/15*16/15+0.20*(33-13)/100+0.20*0.620+0.20*(4689+215)/15*16/15/100+0)/2.5  (age 34)

Favre '96  0.535=(0.20*(39+2)/16+0.20*(39-13)/100+0.20*0.599+0.20*(3899+136)/16/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 27)

McNabb '04  0.517= (0.20*(31+3)/15*16/15+0.20*(31-8)/100+0.20*0.640+0.20*(3885+220)/15*16/15/100+0.05)/2.5 (age 28)

---

 

PManning '09 thru 9 games 0.499 (age 33)

Brady  '09 thru 9 games 0.488 (age 32)

Drew Brees '09 thru 9 games 0.479 (age 30)

 

Rodgers '09 thru 9 games 0.476 (age 26)

Kelly '91  0.499= (0.20*(33+1)/15*16/15+0.20*(33-17)/100+0.20*0.641+0.20*(3844+45)/15*16/15/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 31)

Staubach '71  0.467=(0.20*(23+3)/14*16/14+0.20*(23-15)/100+0.20*0.626+0.20*(2428+343)/14*16/14/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 29)

Elway '97 0.450=(0.20*(27+1)/16+0.20*(27-11)/100+0.20*0.558+0.20*(3635+218)/16/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 37)

Tarkenton '76  0.441=(0.20*(17+1)/13*16/13+0.20*(17-8)/100+0.20*0.619+0.20*(2961+45)/13*16/13/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 36)

Aikman '93  0.431=(0.20*(15+0)/14*16/14+0.20*(15-6)/100+0.20*0.691+0.20*(3100+125)/14*16/14/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 27)

Starr '66  0.419=(0.20*(14+2)/13*16/13+0.20*(14-3)/100+0.20*0.622+0.20*(2257+104)/13*16/13/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 32)

 

the above is hoped to be correct, please (& report) unintended errors.  my source does not necessarily encompass non-NFL stats like the USFL or CFL, which skews ratings for players like Steve Young, Warren Moon, Doug Flutie etc

my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/