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NFL QB Statistics Part II

Page history last edited by Bill McEachen 2 years, 1 month ago

 

As an aside, some of the best rating years according to http://www.pro-football-reference.com/  are  (130+)

 

Starr             141  1968  153   1966  (won SB in Jan '67, Jan '68)

Cunningham  134  1998

Warner          136 1999   132   2001 (won SB Jan '00, lost Feb '02)

Kelly              135  1990 (lost SB Jan '91 thru Jan '94)

Unitas            135  1957 (won SB Jan '71)

Favre             130   1995 (won SB Jan '97, lost SB Jan '98)

Tarkenton      132    1973  (lost SB in Jan '74, Jan'75, Jan '77)

Brady*            148   2007  (lost Feb '08 and won others)  

Brees             (139  2009)   131  2004

Elway, Griese none

McNabb        131  2004

Marino           141  1984 (lost SB Jan '85)

PManning        151  2004 (won SB Feb '07)

Staubach       144   1971   133  1973   132  1979 (won SB Jan '72, Jan '78)

Montana       149   1989   136   1987  134  1984 (won SB Jan '82, Jan '85, Jan '89, Jan '90)

Young           160   1987   159   1989   147  1994   142  1992   135  1991   134  1997  (won SB Jan '95)

Rodgers*

Rivers?

 

So, for matchups, this says one would use Young's '87,'89,'94 season, Manning's '04, Montana '89, Staubach '71, Starr '68.  Warner '99 Cunningham '98,

   Favre '95-'97, Unitas '57, Brady '07, Tarkenton '73,'74,'76, Marino's '84, McNabb's '04 and Kelly '90-'94.  Aikman ,Griese,Elway SB years

We scale stats as needed to a full 16 games, in descending order:

 

PManning '13       0.659>= (0.20*(55+1)/16+0.20*(50-10)/100+0.20*0.683+0.20*(5477-31)/16/100 + 0.05 )/2.5  (age 37)

Montana '89       0.654=(0.20*(26+3)/13*16/13+0.20*(26-8)/100+0.20*0.702+0.20*(3521+227)/13*16/13/100+0.20)/2.5  (age 33)

PManning '06       0.640=(0.20*(49+0)/16+0.20*(49-10)/100+0.20*0.676+0.20*(4557+38)/16/100+0.20)/2.5  (age 30)

Rodgers* '11      0.638 =(0.20*(45+3)/15*16/15+0.20*(45-6)/100+0.20*0.683+0.20*(4643+257)/15*16/15/100)/2.5 (age 28)

Marino '84         0.625=(0.20*(48+7)/16+0.20*(48-17)/100+0.20*0.642+0.20*(5084-7)/16/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 23)

Brady* '07           0.614=(0.20*(50+2)/16+0.20*(50-8)/100+0.20*0.689+0.20*(4806+98)/16/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 30)

Brees '09          0.611=(0.20*(34+2)/15*16/15+0.20*(34-11)/100+0.20*(0.706)+0.20*(4388+33)/15*16/15/100+0.20)/2.5  (age 30)

Brees '11           0.596 = (0.20*(46+1)/16+0.20*(46-14)/100+0.20*0.712+0.20*(5476+86)/16/100)/2.5 (age 32)

Unitas '57          0.595=(0.20*(24+1)/12*16/12+0.20*(24-17)/100+0.20*0.571+0.20*(2550+171)/12*16/12/100+0.20)/2.5  (age 24)

Warner '99        0.587=(0.20*(41+1)/16+0.20*(41-13)/100+0.20*0.651+0.20*(4353+92)/16/100+0.20)/2.5 (age 28)

Young '94          0.579=(0.20*(35+7)/16+0.20*(35-10)/100+0.20*0.703+0.20*(3969+293)/16/100+0.20)/2.5  (age 33)

Rodgers* '10      0.572=(0.20*(28+4)/15*16/15+0.20*(28-11)/100+0.20*0.657+0.20*(3922+356)/15*16/15/100+0.20)/2.5   (age 27)

Brady* '11          0.571 =(0.20*(39+3)/16+0.20*(39-12)/100+0.20*0.656+0.20*(5235+109)/16/100 + 0.05)/2.5  (age 34) (pre-SB

Favre '96            0.555=(0.20*(39+2)/16+0.20*(39-13)/100+0.20*0.599+0.20*(3899+136)/16/100+0.20)/2.5  (age 27)

Cunningham '98  0.547=(0.20*(34+1)/14*16/14+0.20*(34-10)/100+0.20*0.609+0.20*(3704+132)/14*16/14/100+0)/2.5  (age 35)

Moon '90           0.544=(0.20*(33+2)/15*16/15+0.20*(33-13)/100+0.20*0.620+0.20*(4689+215)/15*16/15/100+0)/2.5  (age 34)

McNabb '04       0.517= (0.20*(31+3)/15*16/15+0.20*(31-8)/100+0.20*0.640+0.20*(3885+220)/15*16/15/100+0.05)/2.5 (age 28)

Vick* '10   0.508

Kelly '91  0.499= (0.20*(33+1)/15*16/15+0.20*(33-17)/100+0.20*0.641+0.20*(3844+45)/15*16/15/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 31)

EManning '11    0.477= (0.20*(29+1)/16+0.20*(29-16)/100+0.20*0.610+0.20*(4933+15)/16/100+0.05)/2.5 (age 30) (pre-SB)

Staubach '71  0.467=(0.20*(23+3)/14*16/14+0.20*(23-15)/100+0.20*0.626+0.20*(2428+343)/14*16/14/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 29)

Brees '10 0.459

Rivers* '10  0.455

Elway '97 0.450=(0.20*(27+1)/16+0.20*(27-11)/100+0.20*0.558+0.20*(3635+218)/16/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 37)

Tarkenton '76  0.441=(0.20*(17+1)/13*16/13+0.20*(17-8)/100+0.20*0.619+0.20*(2961+45)/13*16/13/100+0.05)/2.5  (age 36)

Aikman '93  0.431=(0.20*(15+0)/14*16/14+0.20*(15-6)/100+0.20*0.691+0.20*(3100+125)/14*16/14/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 27)

Starr '66  0.419=(0.20*(14+2)/13*16/13+0.20*(14-3)/100+0.20*0.622+0.20*(2257+104)/13*16/13/100+0.15)/2.5  (age 32)

 

As an aside, here are some of PFR's career AVs (1950+, any posn), ref: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/av_career.htm  (note all eligible in top 20 are in HOF)

in order,

QB Brady* (H future)

QB Brees (H future)

QB PManning (H future)

QB Brett Favre(H)

WR Jerry Rice(H)

QB Tarkenton(H)

DE/DT Reggie White(H)

DE Bruce Smith(H)

LB  Ray Lewis (H)

QB Rivers (H future)

QB Dan Marino(H)

Bruce Matthews (G-C-T)

QB Elway(H)

QB Rodgers* (H future)

QB  Roethlisberger (H future)

DT Alan Page(H)

LB Junior Seau(H)

QB MRyan*

(tie)  Brooks(H), DT Lawrence Taylor(H), Woodson(H)

Peppers

Munoz(H)

 

there is a weighted version which rearranges the previous to be in order:   the ref has the numerics

 

Apr 7th

I was curious as to the highest win% for games of record for QBs.  A close stat to this follows:

 

Those are team records when a QB throws at least 14 passes, so it's not exactly the same as games started, but it's pretty close. Here were the all-time leaders (regular-season, minimum 15 games of >= 14 attempts) (as of end of 2010 season)

1. *Tom Brady: 112-32-0 (.778) (after game 3 2011)       189-54 as of 11/12/2017 0.778
2. Roger Staubach: 82-29-0 (.739)
3. Daryle Lamonica: 62-21-5 (.733)
4. Joe Montana: 115-47-0 (.710)

- - - - -
5. Bart Starr: 74-32-4 (.691)

6. Jim McMahon: 64-29-0 (.688)
7. Steve Young: 93-43-0 (.684)
8. Y.A. Tittle: 34-15-3 (.683)
9. Peyton Manning: 139-65-0 (.681)         186-79 as of 11/12/2017

 

*Roethlisberger 129-62 as of 11/12/2017  0.675

10. *Matt Ryan (ATL): 32-15-0 (.681) (after game 3 2011)      89-61 as of 11/12/2017  0.593
11. Rex Grossman: 23-11-0 (.676)
12. Frank Ryan: 53-25-3 (.673)

 * Rodgers  94-47 as of 11/12/2017  (0.667 )

Stabler 96-49 as of 11/12/2017  (0.662 )


13. Philip Rivers: 55-27-0 (.671) (after game 3 2011)    100-84  as of 11/12/2017  0.544

 

Just run the query @ http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi

 

the above is hoped to be correct, please (& report) unintended errors.  my source does not necessarily encompass non-NFL stats like the USFL or CFL, which skews ratings for players like Steve Young, Warren Moon, Doug Flutie etc

my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

 

 

Name  rating  games SBA SBW TotYds TotTD PTD/Int PTD-INT win% pass% 

NFL rating

my rtg less SB  Comment1 Comment2
1  Brady*

0.998

217

6

4

 57429=56578+851

 433

2.84

 270=417-147

77.7 

 0.636

96.4 

0.638

sure HOF top 4 passer
PManning

0.87

265

2

72607=71940+667 

557 

2.15 

288=539-251 

70.2 

0.653 

96.5 

0.670

sure HOF top 4 passer
3 Montana

0.827 

164

4

42227=40551+1676 

293 

1.96 

134=273-139 

71.3 

0.632 

92.3 

0.507

HOF  
Rodgers*

0.71

116

1

33898=31753+2145 

275 

4.10 

192=254-062 

69.4 

0.652 

104.1 

0.629

sure HOF top 4 passer
Brees

0.70

216

61607=60903+704 

442 

2.09 

223=428-205 

58.4 

0.664 

95.8 

0.623

sure HOF top 4 passer
Roethlisberger*

0.676 

169

44186=42995+1191 

287 

1.85 

125=272-147 

66.2 

0.641 

94.0 

0.496

likely HOF  
Bradshaw

0.640 

158

4

30246=27989+2257 

244 

1.01 

002=212-210 

67.7 

0.519 

70.9 

0.320

HOF  
Favre

0.630 

296

1

73438=71603+1835 

521 

1.51 

172=507-335 

62.4 

0.620 

86.0 

0.526

HOF  
Elway

0.630 

231

54882=51475+3407 

333 

1.33 

074=300-226 

64.3 

0.569 

79.9 

0.410

HOF  
Warner

0.607

116

3

1

32630=32344+286

211

1.63

080=208-128

57.4

0.655

93.7

0.487

HOF nominee  

 

 

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