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NFL Receivers

Page history last edited by Bill McEachen 1 month, 2 weeks ago

Feb 2024 congrats to AndreJohnson on his HOF selection

Sep 2023 congrats to prelim 2024 nominees Holt, AndreJohnson, Reggie Wayne and Jordy Nelson

Jan 2023 congrats to Holt&AndreJohnson, Reggie Wayne as finalists

Dec 29 2022 minor edits (add Justin Jefferson and DAdams)

xmas 2021  add Andre Johnson (prelim 2022 nominee), Jordy Nelson and several others.  There are 3+ deserving nominees as of selections for 2022+

Feb 7 2021 congrats to Drew Pearson on his HOF selection !

Feb 1 2020 congrats to Isaac Bruce on his deserved HOF selection

Feb add Steve Smith, congrats to new HOF members Moss&Owens

Jan 2018 update Fitzgerald, he has moved ahead of Hutson into 5th all-time

Nov 2017 update Fitzgerald, he has tied Hutson's rating

 

Jan 2017 update Fitzgerald  (my current HOF letter includes Owens and Holt).  congrats to 2017 finalists Isaac Bruce and Owens

Mar 2016 congrats to MHarrison on HOF

Jan 2016  reflect HOF finalists MHarrison,Owens and update Fitzgerald; add Welker

Oct 2015 update Fitzgerald,Brown

Oct 2014 update Fitzgerald; Harrison was a 2014&2015 Finalist

Aug 4 2013 reflect Carter to HOF (congrats)

Nov 10 2011 tweak rating formula

Sep 19 2011 add Ochocinco

Aug 1 2011  Randy Moss supposedly has retired

Nov 5 gen'l update 2011 prelim nominees incl Ellard,Brown,Carter,Reed,

 

Continuing from the discussion of QB rating, one for WR is really much more clear cut.

The key record categories are yards, receptions, and TDs.

I would argue that T/G and Y/G are most relevant. Yardage really just falls out from the offense.

To reward longevity, we will treat receptions but only for this reason.

Unlike the QB, Superbowl appearances are not relevant, as they are too susceptible to factors out of his control.

The receiver contribution is via forward progress (1st downs, long drives into scoring position).

He certainly needs to be a threat, to open up a running game.

He can be more threatening in yards after the catch, though that stat is harder to come by.

To include receptions as a factor, why? The bottom line falls out of scoring (TD) and yards, whether ten 10-yd catches or two 50-yard. The latter allows for faster field movement and likely improved running effectiveness. I argue if you have the yards and TDs, the receptions fall out. I will provide analysis results for the correlation.  One can reflect misc items like fumbles too (say -fumbles/100) or swi to yds from scrimmage vice receiving yards

Thus, we have for a Jerry Rice,

 

TDs per game TG=0.65

Yards per game YG=76

receptions R =1549

As with the QB rating, scale YG by 100 and effectively each factor is weighted 50%. We incorporate receptions/1000.  Uses games, NOT GS.

De-weighting receptions some for Ki= 0.40,0.40,0.20 gives for Rice 0.40*0.65+0.40*76/100+0.20*1549/1000=0.87

If it were easier to incorporate, yards after catch is a valuable component

Thus the rating formula (please credit Bill R McEachen) is:

rating= 0.40*TG + 0.40*YFS/100 + 0.20*R/1000 - 0.5(fumbles/R)    YFS=yards from scrimmage

Taking the "max" numbers as 0.8, 95 and 1550 (in deference to JR), we have divisor 1.0 to normalize for convenience.

No WR with a HOFMonitor rating<55 (see https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_WR.htm ) is in the Hall (most are >85, avg HOF =104).

 

Applying this rating yields in rating order the top 10 or so to be:

Rice, Harrison, LFitzgerald, Owens, Moss, ABrown, Hutson, Adams*, Jefferson*, Carter

 

(HOF)(1)Rice   0.872= 0.4*197/303 + 0.4*23540/303/100 + 0.2*1549/1000 - 0.5*(27/1549) QB=Montana/Young

(HOF)(T2)Harrison    0.792 =0.4*128/190 + 0.4*14608/190/100 + 0.2*1102/1000 - 0.5*(12/1102)  (compare to CCarter )QB=Manning

(T2) LFitzgerald     0.790 = 0.4*112/226 + 0.4*17492/226/100 + 0.2*1432/1000 -  0.5*(13/1432)  (Cardinals) (compare to Harrison ) ineligible until at least 2025

(HOF)(4) Owens        0.786 =0.4*153/219 + 0.4*16185/219/100 + 0.2*1078/1000 - 0.5*(11/1078)  (Bengals) 

(HOF)(5) Moss          0.755= 0.4*156/218 + 0.4*15292/218/100 + 0.2*982/1000 - 0.5*(16/982)

(6)Antonio Brown   0.748 = 0.4*83/145+0.4*12393/145/100+0.2*925/1000 - 0.5*(15/925)  (compare to Alworth,Irvin) ineligible until at least 2027 QB=Big Ben

(7)(HOF)Hutson   0.723 =0.4*99/116 + 0.4*8275/116/100 + 0.2*488/1000 - 0.5*(1/488) 

D Adams* 0.701 = 0.4*87/133 + 0.4*9637/133/100 + 0.2*769/1000 - 0.5*(6/769)   (compare to Alworth, Irvin)  (best if plays in 13 more games ie 1+ season) likely HOF candidate  9 seasons

 

Justin Jefferson*  0.678 = 0.4*26/48 + 0.4*4812/48/100 + 0.2*319/1000 -  0.5*(2/319) (not at 100 game minimum)

(HOF)Carter   0.673 = 0.4*130/234 + 0.4*13940/234/100 + 0.2*1101/1000 - 0.5*(17/1101)  QB=McNabb

(HOF)Alworth 0.660 = 0.4*85/136 + 0.4*10395/136/100 + 0.2*542/1000 - 0.5*(5/542) 

Holt       0.655 = 0.4*74/173 + 0.4*13439/173/100 + 0.2*920/1000 -  0.5*(20/920) (Nov 2011 version)(compare to Irvin, Monk, Lofton) QB=Warner, 2023 HOF Finalist

Cooper Kupp* 0.653 =  0.4*47/80+0.4*6461/80/100+0.2*508/1000 -0.5*(7/508)  (needs 20 more games to reach 100 min.) compare to IBruce, Largent

(HOF) Andre Johnson 0.648 = 0.4*70/193 + 0.4*14239/193/100 + 0.2*1062/1000 -  0.5*(10/1062)   (compare to Largent)

Reggie Wayne 0.637 = 0.4*82/211+0.4*14345/211/100+0.2*1070/1000 - 0.5*(10/1070)   (compare to AJohnson, Largent) 2023 HOF Finalist

(HOF) Isaac Bruce 0.633 = 0.4*91/223 + 0.4*15208/223/100 + 0.2*1024/1000 - 0.5*(16/1024) QB=Warner (compare to Tim Brown )

(HOF) Largent 0.617 = 0.4*100/200 + 0.4*13172/200/100 + 0.2*819/1000 - 0.5*(17/819)QB=Zorn

(HOF) Irvin      0.608   =0.4*65/159 + 0.4*11910/159/100 + 0.2*750/1000 - 0.5*(7/750) QB=Aikman

SteveSmith    0.607  = 0.4*81/219+0.4*14731/219/100+0.2*1031/1000 - 0.5*(33/1031)  (compare to Alworth, Bruce, 2022 prelim nominee )

Marques Colston 0.600 =  0.4*72/146+0.4*9766/146/100+0.2*711/1000 - 0.5*(10/711)  (eligible) compare to Irvin

(HOF) TBrown   0.598 =  0.4*100/255 + 0.4*15124/255/100 + 0.2*1094/1000 - 0.5*(33/1094) (compare to Largent)

Antonio Gates 0.584 =  0.4*116/236+0.4*11841/236/100+0.2*955/1000 - 0.5*(8/955) (last year was 2018) 

Chad Johnson (Ochocinco)     0.577 = 0.4*67/166+0.4*11059/166/100+0.2*766/1000 - 0.5*(7/766), 2022 prelim nominee

(HOF) AReed             0.560 =0.4*87/234 + 0.4*13698/234/100 + 0.2*951/1000 -  0.5*(25/951) (compare to Monk)

 

purely on ranking, this yields from best  Rice, Harrison, FitzgeraldOwens/Moss and ABrown

 

other WRs for comparison: 

 

(HOF) Monk 0.536 = 0.4*68/224+0.4*13053/224/100+0.2*940/1000 - 0.5*(13/940) (Nov 2011 version)

JNelson 0.534= 0.4*72/151+0.4*8585/151/100+0.2*613/1000 -0.5*(8/613)   (eligible for 2024 class, compare to Bob Hayes, Stallworth)

Galloway     0.518 = 0.4*77/198 + 0.4*11446/198/100 + 0.2*701/1000 - 0.5*(13/701) (compare to Irvin,Branch)(Redskins)

(HOF) Lofton 0.516 = 0.4*75/233+0.4*14250/233/100+0.2*764/1000 - 0.5*(16/764) (Nov 2011 version)

(HOF,TE) Winslow 0.511 = 0.4*45/109+0.4*6741/109/100+0.2*541/1000 - 0.5*(11/541) (Nov 2011 version)

McCardell  0.510=  0.4*63/209+0.4*11393/209/100+0.2*883/1000 - 0.5*(10/883) (eligible ~2012, compare to Irvin)

Welker 0.508 = 0.4*50/175+0.4*9924/175/100+0.2*903/1000 - 0.5*(24/903)  as of end 2015   Note:  GS differs a lot from games

Ellard  0.503=  0.4*65/228+0.4*13827/228/100+0.2*814/1000 -0.5*(27/814) ( compare to Irvin) 2023 semi-finalist

 

********************************************************************

(HOF) Hayes 0.493 = 0.4*71/132+0.4*7482/132/100+0.2*371/1000 - 0.5*(17/371) (Nov 2011 version)

Jefferson 0.480= 0.4*47/102+0.4*5775/102/100+0.2*351/1000 - 0.5*(1/351) (Nov 2011 version)

Driver 0.461 =  0.4*61/205+0.4*10137/205/100+0.2*743/1000 - 0.5*(8/940)  ( compare to Joiner,McCardell,Galloway )

(HOF)Stallworth 0.460 =0.4*63/165+0.4*8834/165/100+0.2*537/1000 - 0.5*(15/537) (Nov 2011 version)

(HOF) Joiner 0.448= 0.4*65/239+0.4*12168/239/100+0.2*750/1000 - 0.5*(21/750)  (Nov 2011 version)

GWashington 0.442 = 0.4*60/140+0.4*6879/140/100+0.2*385/1000 - 0.5*(2/385) (Nov 2011 version)

Mark Clayton 0.438 = 0.4*84/211+0.4*9082/211/100+0.2*582/1000 - 0.5*(11/582) 

Branch 0.432 = 0.4*67/183+0.4*8755/183/100+0.2*501/1000 - 0.5*(6/501)  (Nov 2011 version)(HOF nominee 2010

(HOF)Swann 0.421 =0.4*51/115+0.4*5534/115/100+0.2*336/1000  - 0.5*(11/336)   (Nov 2011 version)

(HOF)Pearson 0.417 =0.4*48/156+0.4*8011/156/100+0.2*489/1000 - 0.5*(9/489)   (Nov 2011 version)

 

grouping a bit:

Rice

Harrison

Owens/Moss

Fitzgerald*/Hutson

Carter/Holt/Alworth

Largent

Irvin/Smith

 

My personal opinion is to expect Rice to come out rated at the top, and this does happen with this rating. Considering the numerics, several players are all headed to the Hall of Fame, including Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Tim Brown, Harrison, Randy Moss, Owens, and Fitzgerald. Yet to be eligible for nomin are SSmith (2023) and ABrown*. Cliff Branch is a slightly harder sell but has numerics akin to Lynn Swann and is now a senior candidate.

Note that Cris Carter, Tim Brown, and Andre Reed each are/were in the top 11 all-time in yardage,receptions and TDs.  The stats make Moss&Owens seem like twins. Jefferson is hurt by lack of Superbowls perhaps and minimal games played.

Players who played for many teams can be hindered, McCardell, Galloway, Moss, Owens are like this (each played for 5+)

 

*Receiver Rating

I would opine a rating is imperfect if Rice doesn't come out CLEARLY on top. There are fewer factors applicable for a WR rating than the QB rating. I would propose the following rating formula which has 1.0 as its normalizing divisor ("perfect") for convenience.

 

rating = k1 * TG + k2 * YG / 100 + k3 * R / 1000 where YG=yards per game, TG=TDs per game and R=receptions

k1,k2,k3=0.40,0.40,0.20 min. 100 games

Using the proposed rating on available stats gives the following (for some notable NFL receivers):

NFL_topWRs.svg as of end of 2008 season.  Spreadsheet WR.xls

 

Examining the stats, the typical Hall of Fame receiver will exceed the following criteria:

catches>500, yards>8000, TDs>60, games>150 and rating>0.60.  Often the HOF receiver has a HOF quarterback on the throwing end. All eligible receivers listed above are in the Hall of Fame.

As of 2017, there are 23+ modern era receivers elected to the Hall of Fame, alphabetically,

Alworth, Berry, Biletnikoff, Brown,Carter,Fears, Harrison, Hirsch,Irvin,Joiner, Largent, Lavelli, Lofton, Maynard,McDonald,Mitchell,Monk, Pihos, Rice, Stallworth, Swann, Taylor and Warfield.

Regarding potential members, there will be many strong candidates which may include in addition to the previous names,  Torry Holt, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Fitzgerald.

 

Elite Leaders (WR,career)

only 5 w/ Points (receiving)>750 Rice, Moss, Owens, Carter, Harrison (1182, 918, 918, 780, 768)

only 3 w/ Games >250 Rice, TBrown, Fryar (303,255,255)  ( IBruce  223,  Owens has 219, Fitzgerald*/Moss  218 )

only 4 w/ Receptions/game 5 or more Harrison, LFitzgerald*, Holt, Rice (5.8,   5.7, 5.4, 5.1)  ( IBruce 4.6) 

only 5 w/ Yards per game>77 Boldin*, Johnson*, Rice, Holt, Moss (79.5,78.1,77.7,77.4,77.4)  (Harrison at 76.8, Alworth 76.4)

only 4 w/ Rating>0.75 (see earlier) Rice, Harrison, Owens, Moss (0.872,0.792,0.786,0.783)

only 3 w/ TDs> 150 Rice, Moss, Owens (197,153,153)

only 5 w/ Yards from scrimmage >15000 Rice,Owens,Bruce,Brown,Moss (23540,16185,15347,15124,15017)   ( Fitzgerald* @14457)

only 4 w/ Receptions>1100 Rice,  Fitzgerald*, Harrison, Carter   ( 1549,  1234, 1102 , 1101  )     (Owens at 1078, IBruce 1024 )

only 2 w/ receptions/fumble>350  Hutson, Jefferson  (488,351) (very impressive)

 

Rice holds the NFL record for yards from scrimmage at 23540 http://www.nfl.com/history/randf/records/indiv/yards (Smith,Payton 2nd,3rd respectively).  

Rice also has the most 50+ yd TD plays by far (36).  His rating is 10% above his nearest competitor

Harrison was near 15000 yds (shy ~400)

Moss  is 19th all-time in yards from scrimmage

TBrown  is 5th in career all-purpose yards.   He is 17th all-time in yards from scrimmage

TOwens had a streak of 185 consecuive games with at least 1 reception.  He is 11th all-time in yards from scrimmage

Fitzgerald  compares well to HOF Alworth and Hutson and this should put him in HOF.  He is in top 8 all-time in receiving TDs 

                                                             (to pass Hutson,Brown,Largent).  He is top 2 in career receptions.  

Rice is #1 in above elite categories xcept #3 Y/G,R/G

thru 2017 regular season min. 100 games

asterisk denotes active

the above is hoped to be correct, please (& report) unintended errors

my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

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