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RBRatings

Page history last edited by Bill McEachen 3 weeks, 4 days ago

Dec 14 2022 minor edits

Nov 13 2021 a few updates, add Frank Gore & Lesean McCoy

Feb 2020 congrats to EJames well-deserved HOF selection ...Feb 2018 add DSproles

Nov 2017 updates Chris Johnson, Peterson, Lynch

Jan 2017 update Chris Johnson, Peterson, Lynch.  Congrats to 2017 HOF selectees  Tomlinson  and Terrell Davis, EJames was improperly snubbed

My current HOF letter would includes Tomlinson and EJames

Jan 2016  updates  (EJames finalist )

add Lynch&APeterson stats, Bettis 2014 finalist

Feb 5 Faulk into HOF; Jan 9 add Bettis as he is a HOF 2011 finalist

Nov 5th gen'l update;edit Oct 16 2010 for Tomlinson etc

edit Feb 6 reflect Smith into HOF (congrats); edit: Jan 6 2010 for active

this is the 3rd of 3 (QB,WR) for NFL Rushing

the rating is simple, rewarding scoring, production and durability

It rates in the top 12 in rating order (all inactive) :

Tomlinson, Jim Brown,Walter Payton,Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, (Green) James, Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, (Shaun Alexander), Curtis Martin, Peterson*, Marcus Allen

One must use discretion when ratings are within a certain range (a 0.89 is not inherently a better RB than a 0.88!)

use games started

With 2 outliers, no RB with a HOFMonitor rating<65 (see https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_RB.htm ) is in the Hall (most are >80, HOF avg=107).

 

TBarber  0.874 = ( 0.3*(55+12)/109 + 0.5*15632/109/25 + 0.2*2217/1000 )/4    AV=122   (big discrep betw GS and games)

Derrick Henry* 0.848 = (0.3*(78+3)/70 + 0.5*(9451)/70/25 + 0.2*1720/1000 )/4 (Titans) (short on min. games, needs 2+ more seasons, (big discrep betw GS and games)

(T1)(HOF)Tomlinson    0.832 =( 0.3*(145+16)/155 + 0.5*(18456)/155/25 + 0.2*3174/1000 )/4   (compare to Brown)(Jets)  AV=158

(T1)(HOF)Brown   0.826 =( 0.3*(106+20)/118 + 0.5*(14811)/118/25 + 0.2*2359/1000 )/4  AV=122

(T3)(HOF)Payton   0.821 =( 0.3*(110+15)/184(GS) + 0.5*(21264)/184/25 + 0.2*3838/1000 )/4  [note: # attempts under review]  AV=167

(T3)(HOF)Faulk    0.821 =( 0.3*(100+36)/156 + 0.5*(19154)/156/25 + 0.2*2836/1000 )/4   (compare to Sanders)  AV=164

(5)(HOF)Sanders 0.810 = ( 0.3*(99+10)/151 + 0.5*(18190)/151/25 + 0.2*3062/1000 )/4  AV=149

 

(T6)Ahman Green 0.783 = (0.3*(60+14)/97 + 0.5*(12088)/97/25 + 0.2*2056/1000 )/4 (ineligible by games for me), compare to finalist TDavis  AV=96

(T6)(HOF)(Edgerrin) James   0.780 =( 0.3*(80+11)/135(GS) + 0.5*(15610)/135/25 + 0.2*3028/1000 )/4  (compare to Dickerson)  AV=135

(T7) (HOF) Smith    0.773 = ( 0.3*(164+11)/219(GS) + 0.5*(21579)/219/25 + 0.2*4409/1000 )/4 [note: # attempts under review]  AV=169

(T7) (HOF)Dickerson 0.769 =( 0.3*(90+6)/136(GS) + 0.5*(13259+2137)/136/25 + 0.2*2996/1000 )/4  AV=111

Alexander     0.768 =( 0.3*(100+12)/96 + 0.5*(9453+1520)/96/25 + 0.2*2187/1000 )/4   (compare to Simpson) insufficient games

(HOF) Martin   0.746 =( 0.3*(90+10)/166(GS) + 0.5*(17430)/166/25 + 0.2*3518/1000 )/4  [note: # attempts under review]  (compare to Dickerson)   AV=131

APeterson  0.743 =  ( 0.3*(129+6)/167 + 0.5*(17392)/167/25 + 0.2*3230/1000 )/4   (thru xmas 2021 )  (likely HOF selection, compare to CMartin ) long wait til eligible  AV=129

(HOF)Allen    0.741 =( 0.3*(123+21)/168(GS) + 0.5*(17654)/168/25 + 0.2*3022/1000 )/4  AV=143

Sims 0.736 =( 0.3*(42+5)/58 + 0.5*(7178)/58/25 + 0.2*1131/1000 )/4   insufficient games and carries

(HOF)Dorsett 0.727 =( 0.3*(77+13)/152(GS) + 0.5*(16293)/152/25 + 0.2*2936/1000 )/4   AV=137

(HOF)Terrell Davis 0.723 = ( 0.3*(60+5)/77 + 0.5*(7607+1280)/77/25 + 0.2*1655/1000 )/4   AV=80 outlier

(HOF) Bettis 0.714 = (0.3*(91+3)/153(GS) + 0.5*(15111)/153/25 + 0.2*3479/1000 )/4   AV=104

 

 

by pure ranking, this yields Tomlinson,Brown/Faulk/Payton/Sanders/(AGreen)/James/Smith/Dickerson/(Alexander)/Martin/APeterson

A "super" back likely has >18000 YFS, >3000 carries, TTPG > 0.80, and AV>134.  Every such back is in the HOF.  Most have >15000 YFS and >2300 carries and >0.60 TTDG.

[ APeterson has 17392, 3479, 0.81 and 129  for reference.]  Every back with rating>0.710 is in the HOF if they meet minimum criteria.

 

others for contrast:

 

Jamaal Williams* 0.720 =  (0.3*(27+8)/38 + 0.5*(4614)/38/25 + 0.2*877/1000 )/4  (huge discrep betw GS and games)

Sproles   (ineligible due to games started 31) using total games

Watters 0.703 =( 0.3*(78+13)/142 + 0.5*(10643+4248)/142/25 + 0.2*2622/1000 )/4  (2023 semi-finalist)  AV=122

Lesean McCoy  0.702 = (0.3*(73+16)/141 + 0.5*(15000)/141/25 + 0.2*2457/1000 )/4  (last year was 2020 )  AV=104

HWalker  0.696 =( 0.3*(82+61)/(138+54) + 0.5*(8225+4859+5562)/192/25 + 0.2*(1954+1143)/1000 )/4 (with USFL stats),  compare to Allen (HOF)), prelim nominee AV=97

(ineligible by games for meCalvin Hill  0.693 = ( 0.3*(42+23)/80 + 0.5*(6083+2861)/80/25 + 0.2*1452/1000 )/4   (compare to Foreman)  AV=87

Chris Johnson (ARZ) 0.688 = ( 0.3*(55+9)/111 + 0.5*(9651+2255)/111/25 + 0.2*2163/1000 )/4    (compare to Lynch, HWalker) (Hall eligible)  AV=81

CForeman 0.688 = ( 0.3*(53+23)/84 + 0.5*(5950+3156)/84/25 + 0.2*1556/1000 )/4  (compare to Calvin Hill)  AV=88

Gore 0.679 = (0.3*(81+18)/218 + 0.5*(19985)/218/25 + 0.2*3735/1000 )/4   AV=133 outlier

DeAngelo Williams 0.673 = ( 0.3*(61+9)/96 + 0.5*(8096+2106)/96/25 + 0.2*1730/1000 )/4  (compare to TDavis,CHill )   AV=73

Fred Taylor  0.666 =( 0.3*(66+8)/140 + 0.5*(11638+2384)/140/25 + 0.2*2516/1000 )/4

(HOF) Simpson 0.657 = ( 0.3*(61+14)/135 + 0.5*(11236+2142)/135/25 + 0.2*2404/1000 )/4

Chubb* 0.655 =  (0.3*(48+3)/66 + 0.5*(7093)/66/25 + 0.2*1184/1000 )/4

Jamal Lewis  0.655  ( 0.3*(58+4)/127 + 0.5*(10607+1879)/127/25 + 0.2*2542/1000 )/4

MLynch  0.643 = ( 0.3*(85+9)/135+ 0.5*(10413+2214)/135/25 + 0.2*2453/1000 )/4     (compare to HWalker, Chris Johnson)(last year 2019)

RCraig     0.633 =( 0.3*(56+17)/133 + 0.5*(8189+4911)/133/25 + 0.2*1991/1000)/4 (HOF nominee 2010,11)

Muncie  0.629 = ( 0.3*(71+3)/92 + 0.5*(6702+2323)/92/25 + 0.2*1561/1000 )/4 

TBarber  0.874 = ( 0.3*(55+12)/109 + 0.5*15632/109/25 + 0.2*2217/1000 )/4    AV=122

(HOF) Riggins 0.629 =( 0.3*(104+12)/157 + 0.5*(11352+2090)/157/25 + 0.2*2916/1000 )/4

(HOF) FHarris 0.627=( 0.3*(91+9)/166 + 0.5*(12120+2287)/166/25 + 0.2*2949/1000 )/4

HWalker 0.616 =( 0.3*(61+21)/138 + 0.5*(8225+4859)/138/25 + 0.2*1954/1000 )/4 (lacking USFL stats)

Josh Jacobs* 0.607 = (0.3*(39+0)/57 + 0.5*(5747)/57/25 + 0.2*1038/1000 )/4

AJones*  0.595 = ( 0.3*(43+17)/72 + 0.5*6946/72/25 + 0.2*1009/1000 )/4  (insufficient games right now)

RNewhouse 0.477 = ( 0.3*(31+5)/75 + 0.5*(4784+956)/75/25 + 0.2*1160/1000 )/4  (often had "star" ahead of him )

 

grouping a bit gives:

Tomlinson/Brown/Payton/Faulk/Sanders

James/Smith/Dickerson/Green

Martin/Allen/Dorsett/Bettis

 

The rating (please credit Bill R McEachen as the author)is

[0.30TG +0.5YFS/25 + 0.2*C/1000]/4.0] where TG=TDs per game, YFS=yds from scrimmage and C=carries.  Games are games started (except Simpson )

Designed for "1" being ideal/max. 

Minimum 100 games is applied (Mercury Morris, Brockington,TDavis,Sims do not meet) OR min 1500 attempts

As far as the Hall of Fame, a player appears to be a "lock" if TG >0.9, 112 YG, more than 3000 carries.

There seems to be "bias" unless player has >10000 yards,>2500 rushes and >90 TDs for HOF [ TDavis as finalist is one exception]

(this may hurt RCraig,Jlewis,FTaylor, and Watters to name a few - OJ Simpson is a rare xception )

An interesting stat is that  the top 14 running backs in career touches are HOF members excepting Edgerrin James and Frank Gore

Every rusher above a 0.75 rating is in excepting Edgerrin James, and several below 0.75.

For HOF evaluation, side-by-side recommended is (link  Pro Football HOF Musings) :

Payton, Faulk and Brown vs Dickerson,Smith

Alexander,Barber,George,Barber,Bettis vs Campbell,Allen,Riggins

Possible candidates to consider from the crop of active and recently retired include Edgerrin James,R Watters, S Alexander,T Thomas, Tiki Barber, Eddie George, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, FTaylor in no order. HWalker deserves the nod treating his NFL+USFL stats.  Certainly  EJames must get the nod.  HOF selections seem to have ~3000+ attempts and 15000 combined yards generally

 

Elite Leaders (RB,career)

only 2 w/ Receiving yards>6000 Faulk,Centers (6875,6797)

only 5 w/ Rating>=0.80 (see earlier) Tomlinson,JBrown,Payton,Faulk,Sanders  ( 0.832,0.826,0.821,0.821,0.810) APeterson* next closest 0.789

only 3 w/ TDs per game>1 Alexander,Tomlinson, JBrown (1.17,1.04,1.07)

only 4 w/ Yards per game>115 JBrown,Sanders,Tomlinson,Payton  (126,120,119,116 )      ( APeterson* 113)  

only 3 w/ Total points>850 ESmith,Tomlinson,MAllen (1050,966,864)

only 3 w/ Carries >3500 ESmith,Payton,Curtis Martin (4409,3838,3518)[note: these do NOT match NFL website! adjust pending ]

only 3 w/ Rush yards>15000 ESmith,Payton,Sanders (18355,16726,15269)

only 2 w/ games > 200 ESmith,MAllen (226,222)

only 2 w/ total TDs (rush+pass)>150 ESmith,Tomlinson (175,161)

only 3  w/ yards/carry >= 5.1 BoJackson,JBrown, MMorris (5.4,5.2,5.1)    [APeterson* 4.9  ,  sev'l ineligible meet the mark incl Johnson,Williams,Towler,Strzykalski]

only 3 w/ recept >600 Centers,Faulk,Tomlinson (827,767,624)

(100 games min. OR 1500 carries) as of end 2016 regular season

  • denotes active as of 2015

 

APeterson* at 4.9 yds/carry and 118 yds/game.   If finishes career w/120TD, 14000 rush yds,3000 carries he will achieve rtg >=0.810 (already HOF lock)

reflecting USFL, Hershel Walker has 858 total pts, approx 97 yds/game, and 4.5 yds/carry

combined yardage Rice,Mitchell,Payton,ESmith (23546,23316,21803,21579)  (WR,RB,RB,RB).

yards from scrimmage  Rice,ESmith,Payton (23540,21579,21264) (WR,RB,RB)

 

DeAngelo Williams (Pitt), Chris Johnson (ARZ) do not have min # games but are active

 

Let's contrast a few backs:

  Rating HOF? TDs(Rush+Receive)  Yards(Rush+receive)  Attempts  Games started Total Games  YG TG ProBowls 
AGreen 0.783 no 75=60+14  12088=9205+2883  2056  97 148  125 0.77
CHill 0.693 no 65=42+23  8944=6083+2861  1452 <1500 80 156  112 0.81
TDavis 0.723 yes 
65=60+5  8887=7607+1280  1655  77 78  115 0.84
EJames 0.780 yes 
91=80+11 15610=12246+3364 3028 135 148

116

0.67 4

 

 

 

the above is correct to my knowledge, please forgive (& report) unintended errors

my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

also http://www.nfl.com/history/randf/records/  ,  http://www.oursportscentral.com/usfl/leaders.php

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