Sept 2023 congrats to Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber and Ricky Watters for deserved prelim HOF nomination (for 2024)
Apr 21 2023 minor edits
Dec 14 2022 minor edits
Nov 13 2021 a few updates, add Frank Gore & Lesean McCoy
Feb 2020 congrats to EJames well-deserved HOF selection ...Feb 2018 add DSproles
Nov 2017 updates Chris Johnson, Peterson, Lynch
Jan 2017 update Chris Johnson, Peterson, Lynch. Congrats to 2017 HOF selectees Tomlinson and Terrell Davis, EJames was improperly snubbed
My current HOF letter would includes Tomlinson and EJames
Jan 2016 updates (EJames finalist )
add Lynch&APeterson stats, Bettis 2014 finalist
Feb 5 Faulk into HOF; Jan 9 add Bettis as he is a HOF 2011 finalist
Nov 5th gen'l update;edit Oct 16 2010 for Tomlinson etc
edit Feb 6 reflect Smith into HOF (congrats); edit: Jan 6 2010 for active
this is the 3rd of 3 (QB,WR) for NFL Rushing
the rating is simple, rewarding scoring, production and durability
It rates in the top 12 in rating order (all inactive) :
Tomlinson, Jim Brown,Walter Payton,Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, (Green) James, Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, (Shaun Alexander), Curtis Martin, Peterson*, Marcus Allen
One must use discretion when ratings are within a certain range (a 0.89 is not inherently a better RB than a 0.88!)
use games started
With 2 outliers, no RB with a HOFMonitor rating<65 (see https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_RB.htm ) is in the Hall (most are >80, HOF avg=107).
(1) TBarber 0.874 = ( 0.3*(55+12)/109 + 0.5*15632/109/25 + 0.2*2217/1000 )/4 AV=122 (big discrep betw GS and games) HOFMonitor ~ 58 hurts, as does total TDs
(2) Priest Holmes 0.854 = ( 0.3*(86+8)/82 + 0.5*(8172+2962)/82/25 + 0.2*1780/1000 )/4 AV=92 HOFMonitor ~ 56 hurts
(3)Derrick Henry* 0.848 = (0.3*(78+3)/71 + 0.5*(9579)/71/25 + 0.2*1750/1000 )/4 (Titans) (eligible by carries) (big discrep betw GS and games)
(4)(HOF)Tomlinson 0.832 =( 0.3*(145+16)/155 + 0.5*(18456)/155/25 + 0.2*3174/1000 )/4 (compare to Brown)(Jets) AV=158
(5)(HOF)Brown 0.826 =( 0.3*(106+20)/118 + 0.5*(14811)/118/25 + 0.2*2359/1000 )/4 AV=122
(T6)(HOF)Payton 0.821 =( 0.3*(110+15)/184(GS) + 0.5*(21264)/184/25 + 0.2*3838/1000 )/4 [note: # attempts under review] AV=167
(T6)(HOF)Faulk 0.821 =( 0.3*(100+36)/156 + 0.5*(19154)/156/25 + 0.2*2836/1000 )/4 (compare to Sanders) AV=164
(7)(HOF)Sanders 0.810 = ( 0.3*(99+10)/151 + 0.5*(18190)/151/25 + 0.2*3062/1000 )/4 AV=149
(T8) Ahman Green 0.783 = (0.3*(60+14)/97 + 0.5*(12088)/97/25 + 0.2*2056/1000 )/4 (eligible by carries), compare to TDavis AV=96 HOFMonitor~45 hurts
(T8)(HOF)(Edgerrin) James 0.780 =( 0.3*(80+11)/135(GS) + 0.5*(15610)/135/25 + 0.2*3028/1000 )/4 (compare to Dickerson) AV=135
(T10) (HOF) Smith 0.773 = ( 0.3*(164+11)/219(GS) + 0.5*(21579)/219/25 + 0.2*4409/1000 )/4 [note: # attempts under review] AV=169
(T10) (HOF)Dickerson 0.769 =( 0.3*(90+6)/136(GS) + 0.5*(13259+2137)/136/25 + 0.2*2996/1000 )/4 AV=111
(T10) Alexander 0.768 =( 0.3*(100+12)/96 + 0.5*(9453+1520)/96/25 + 0.2*2187/1000 )/4 (eligible by carries) AV=77 shorter career, HOFMonitor~62 hurts
(HOF) Martin 0.746 =( 0.3*(90+10)/166(GS) + 0.5*(17430)/166/25 + 0.2*3518/1000 )/4 [note: # attempts under review] (compare to Dickerson) AV=131
APeterson 0.743 = ( 0.3*(129+6)/167 + 0.5*(17392)/167/25 + 0.2*3230/1000 )/4 (thru xmas 2021 ) (likely HOF selection, compare to CMartin ) long wait til eligible AV=129
(HOF)Allen 0.741 =( 0.3*(123+21)/168(GS) + 0.5*(17654)/168/25 + 0.2*3022/1000 )/4 AV=143
Sims 0.736 =( 0.3*(42+5)/58 + 0.5*(7178)/58/25 + 0.2*1131/1000 )/4 insufficient games and carries
(HOF)Dorsett 0.727 =( 0.3*(77+13)/152(GS) + 0.5*(16293)/152/25 + 0.2*2936/1000 )/4 AV=137
(HOF)Terrell Davis 0.723 = ( 0.3*(60+5)/77 + 0.5*(7607+1280)/77/25 + 0.2*1655/1000 )/4 AV=80 outlier
(HOF) Bettis 0.714 = (0.3*(91+3)/153(GS) + 0.5*(15111)/153/25 + 0.2*3479/1000 )/4 AV=104
by pure ranking, this yields Tomlinson,Brown/Faulk/Payton/Sanders/(AGreen)/James/Smith/Dickerson/(Alexander)/Martin/APeterson
A "super" back likely has >18000 YFS, >3000 carries, TTPG > 0.80, and AV>134. Every such back is in the HOF. Most have >15000 YFS and >2300 carries and >0.60 TTDG.
[ APeterson has 17392, 3479, 0.81 and 129 for reference.] Every eligible back with rating>0.710 is in the HOF if they meet minimum criteria except Alexander, Holmes, Barber
others for contrast:
Jamaal Williams* 0.720 = (0.3*(27+8)/38 + 0.5*(4614)/38/25 + 0.2*877/1000 )/4 (huge discrep betw GS and games)
Sproles (ineligible due to games started 31) using total games
Watters 0.703 =( 0.3*(78+13)/142 + 0.5*(10643+4248)/142/25 + 0.2*2622/1000 )/4 (2023 semi-finalist) AV=122
Lesean McCoy 0.702 = (0.3*(73+16)/141 + 0.5*(15000)/141/25 + 0.2*2457/1000 )/4 (last year was 2020 ) AV=104
HWalker 0.696 =( 0.3*(82+61)/(138+54) + 0.5*(8225+4859+5562)/192/25 + 0.2*(1954+1143)/1000 )/4 (with USFL stats), compare to Allen (HOF)), prelim nominee AV=97
(ineligible by games for me) Calvin Hill 0.693 = ( 0.3*(42+23)/80 + 0.5*(6083+2861)/80/25 + 0.2*1452/1000 )/4 (compare to Foreman) AV=87
Chris Johnson (ARZ) 0.688 = ( 0.3*(55+9)/111 + 0.5*(9651+2255)/111/25 + 0.2*2163/1000 )/4 (compare to Lynch, HWalker) (Hall eligible) AV=81
CForeman 0.688 = ( 0.3*(53+23)/84 + 0.5*(5950+3156)/84/25 + 0.2*1556/1000 )/4 (compare to Calvin Hill) AV=88
Gore 0.679 = (0.3*(81+18)/218 + 0.5*(19985)/218/25 + 0.2*3735/1000 )/4 AV=133 outlier
DeAngelo Williams 0.673 = ( 0.3*(61+9)/96 + 0.5*(8096+2106)/96/25 + 0.2*1730/1000 )/4 (compare to TDavis,CHill ) AV=73
Fred Taylor 0.666 =( 0.3*(66+8)/140 + 0.5*(11638+2384)/140/25 + 0.2*2516/1000 )/4
(HOF) Simpson 0.657 = ( 0.3*(61+14)/135 + 0.5*(11236+2142)/135/25 + 0.2*2404/1000 )/4
Chubb* 0.655 = (0.3*(48+3)/66 + 0.5*(7093)/66/25 + 0.2*1184/1000 )/4
Jamal Lewis 0.655 ( 0.3*(58+4)/127 + 0.5*(10607+1879)/127/25 + 0.2*2542/1000 )/4
MLynch 0.643 = ( 0.3*(85+9)/135+ 0.5*(10413+2214)/135/25 + 0.2*2453/1000 )/4 (compare to HWalker, Chris Johnson)(last year 2019)
RCraig 0.633 =( 0.3*(56+17)/133 + 0.5*(8189+4911)/133/25 + 0.2*1991/1000)/4 (HOF nominee 2010,11)
Muncie 0.629 = ( 0.3*(71+3)/92 + 0.5*(6702+2323)/92/25 + 0.2*1561/1000 )/4
(HOF) Riggins 0.629 =( 0.3*(104+12)/157 + 0.5*(11352+2090)/157/25 + 0.2*2916/1000 )/4
(HOF) FHarris 0.627=( 0.3*(91+9)/166 + 0.5*(12120+2287)/166/25 + 0.2*2949/1000 )/4
HWalker 0.616 =( 0.3*(61+21)/138 + 0.5*(8225+4859)/138/25 + 0.2*1954/1000 )/4 (lacking USFL stats)
Josh Jacobs* 0.607 = (0.3*(39+0)/57 + 0.5*(5747)/57/25 + 0.2*1038/1000 )/4
AJones* 0.595 = ( 0.3*(43+17)/72 + 0.5*6946/72/25 + 0.2*1009/1000 )/4 (insufficient games right now)
RNewhouse 0.477 = ( 0.3*(31+5)/75 + 0.5*(4784+956)/75/25 + 0.2*1160/1000 )/4 (often had "star" ahead of him ) (doesn't meet min carries or GS)
grouping a bit gives:
Tomlinson/Brown/Payton/Faulk/Sanders
James/Smith/Dickerson/Green
Martin/Allen/Dorsett/Bettis
The rating (please credit Bill R McEachen as the author)is
Designed for "1" being ideal/max.
Minimum 100 games is applied (Mercury Morris, Brockington,TDavis,Sims do not meet) OR min 1500 attempts
As far as the Hall of Fame, a player appears to be a "lock" if TG >0.9, 112 YG, more than 3000 carries.
There seems to be "bias" unless player has >10000 yards,>2500 rushes and >90 TDs for HOF [ TDavis as finalist is one exception]
(this may hurt RCraig,Jlewis,FTaylor, and Watters to name a few - OJ Simpson is a rare xception )
An interesting stat is that the top 14 running backs in career touches are HOF members excepting Edgerrin James and Frank Gore
Every rusher above a 0.75 rating is in excepting Edgerrin James, and several below 0.75.
For HOF evaluation, side-by-side recommended is (link Pro Football HOF Musings) :
Payton, Faulk and Brown vs Dickerson,Smith
Alexander,Barber,George,Barber,Bettis vs Campbell,Allen,Riggins
Possible candidates to consider from the crop of active and recently retired include Edgerrin James,R Watters, S Alexander,T Thomas, Tiki Barber, Eddie George, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, FTaylor in no order. HWalker deserves the nod treating his NFL+USFL stats. Certainly EJames must get the nod. HOF selections seem to have ~3000+ attempts and 15000 combined yards generally
Elite Leaders (RB,career)
only 2 w/ Receiving yards>6000 Faulk,Centers (6875,6797)
only 5 w/ Rating>=0.80 (see earlier) Tomlinson,JBrown,Payton,Faulk,Sanders ( 0.832,0.826,0.821,0.821,0.810) APeterson* next closest 0.789
only 3 w/ TDs per game>1 Alexander,Tomlinson, JBrown (1.17,1.04,1.07)
only 4 w/ Yards per game>115 JBrown,Sanders,Tomlinson,Payton (126,120,119,116 ) ( APeterson* 113)
only 3 w/ Total points>850 ESmith,Tomlinson,MAllen (1050,966,864)
only 3 w/ Carries >3500 ESmith,Payton,Curtis Martin (4409,3838,3518)[note: these do NOT match NFL website! adjust pending ]
only 3 w/ Rush yards>15000 ESmith,Payton,Sanders (18355,16726,15269)
only 2 w/ games > 200 ESmith,MAllen (226,222)
only 2 w/ total TDs (rush+pass)>150 ESmith,Tomlinson (175,161)
only 3 w/ yards/carry >= 5.1 BoJackson,JBrown, MMorris (5.4,5.2,5.1) [APeterson* 4.9 , sev'l ineligible meet the mark incl Johnson,Williams,Towler,Strzykalski]
only 3 w/ recept >600 Centers,Faulk,Tomlinson (827,767,624)
(100 games min. OR 1500 carries) as of end 2016 regular season
APeterson* at 4.9 yds/carry and 118 yds/game. If finishes career w/120TD, 14000 rush yds,3000 carries he will achieve rtg >=0.810 (already HOF lock)
reflecting USFL, Hershel Walker has 858 total pts, approx 97 yds/game, and 4.5 yds/carry
combined yardage Rice,Mitchell,Payton,ESmith (23546,23316,21803,21579) (WR,RB,RB,RB).
yards from scrimmage Rice,ESmith,Payton (23540,21579,21264) (WR,RB,RB)
DeAngelo Williams (Pitt), Chris Johnson (ARZ) do not have min # games but are active
Let's contrast a few backs:
Rating | HOF? | TDs(Rush+Receive) | Yards(Rush+receive) | Attempts | Games started | Total Games | YG | TG | ProBowls | |
AGreen | 0.783 | no | 75=60+14 | 12088=9205+2883 | 2056 | 97 | 148 | 125 | 0.77 | 4 |
CHill | 0.693 | no | 65=42+23 | 8944=6083+2861 | 1452 <1500 | 80 | 156 | 112 | 0.81 | 4 |
TDavis | 0.723 | yes |
65=60+5 | 8887=7607+1280 | 1655 | 77 | 78 | 115 | 0.84 | 3 |
EJames | 0.780 | yes |
91=80+11 | 15610=12246+3364 | 3028 | 135 | 148 |
116 |
0.67 | 4 |
the above is correct to my knowledge, please forgive (& report) unintended errors
my main source is the invaluable website http://www.pro-football-reference.com/
also http://www.nfl.com/history/randf/records/ , http://www.oursportscentral.com/usfl/leaders.php