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Tennis Stuff

Page history last edited by Bill McEachen 8 months ago

Feb 2 2020 congrats to Dokie on his AO title

Sep 6 congrats to Nadal&Serena onreaching their finals once again

Jul 14 2019 congrats to Halep&Serena on reaching the Wimbledon finals, Halep on her win,  as well as Dookie&Federer (and both on their match)

Jun 9 2019 congrats to Barty on her win & Nadal on yet another French

Jan 27 2019 congrats to Dokie & Osaka on their Australian Open wins, and Nadal on reaching the Final; Dokie is now firmly @ #6 all-time by rating

Sep 9 congrats to Dokie & Osaka on their US Open wins, and Serena on reaching the US Open finals

Jul 15 2018 congrats to Serena on reaching yet another final, and Dokie and Anderson for same; congrats to Kerber, Dokie on their wins (?)

 

OK, similar to what I tried with NFL stats, I've messed around with tennis, my favorite spectator sport (at least the Grand Slams).

Please credit the author for any reuse; errata or questions are appreciated

 

The typical caveats apply, about comparisons between different decades, eras, etc.  Stats only tell part of the story, which is why I also include my personal rankings aside from the numerical results.

 

The first rankings stem from analysis of Grand Slam final results, combined with overall win % on tour.  Detailed explanation follows later.

Interestingly enough Navratilova has lost more GS finals than all but 4 women have wins !  Four women have 1000+ wins (Navratilova,Evert, Court and the indomitable Sanchez-Vicario ).  Graf is just shy.

 

Purely from the numerics, we see the following rankings for the players treated (see notes later)(as of ~2/1/2015).  Table is sortable on all columns.

Sorting on C%+GS% yields rating ranks 3,2,4,7,1,8; sort of GSF/MP yields 5,3,2,4,1,6;  Career wins yields 1,6,2,--,4,7

 

Note on Margaret Court, I have no stats for her career doubles, and 24.5 of her 58 GS finals were open-era.

 

                         Women

 

Name  rtg    GSF  Career%  GS%  GSFW  GSFL  CareerW  CareerL 

GSF/MP 

GSFspan

C%+GS%

1   Navratilova 2.07 4 58.5 .862 .658 38.5 20 1815.5 290.5 2.8% 16='75-'90 1.52 (T#4)
T2   MCourt** 1.98 4 24.5 .917 .813 19.5 4.5 1177 106 3.7% 16='60-'75 1.72
T2   Serena (active)
1.97 4 42 .853 .756 31 10 903.5 155.5 3.9% 22='98-'19 1.63

4   Graf

1.88 4 33 .887 .682 22.5 10.5 986.5 126 3.0% 14='86-99 1.57 (#3)
                         
5   Evert 1.77 4 36.5 .892 .534 19.5 17 1367.5 165.5 2.4% 16='73-'88 1.43
6   Shriver 1.72 4 14.5 .739 .793 11.5 3 936 331 1.1% 11='81-'91 1.53 (T#4)
T7  Hingis  (active) 1.67 4 23.5 .806 .638 15 8.5 785.5 189.5 2.3% 22='96-'17 1.44

T7   Billie Jean King (BJK)***

1.66 4 27.5 .803 .600 16.5 11 782 192 2.8% 20='61-'80

1.40

T7   Seles 1.65 3 13 .816 .692 9 4 639.5 144.5 1.7% 07='90-'96 1.51 (T#4)
10 Venus (active) 1.63 4 24.5 .781 .612 15 9.5 877.5 246.5 2.3% 20='98-'17 1.39
                         
11  Henin 1.51 3 12 .805 .583 7 5 548.5 132.5 1.8% 07='01-'07 1.39
11 Clijsters (does not meet min.) 1.53 2 9.5 .794 .625 5 3 581.5 151 1.3%  12='00-'11 1.42
-- Sharapova (active) 1.46 4 10 .799 .500 5 5 551.5 136.5 1.3%  12='04-'15 1.30
Sanchez-Vicario 1.39 2 21.5 .729 .419 9 12.5 1097 407 1.4% 12='89-'00 1.15

 

**singles only career W-L, open-era only for GSF

*** open-era only for GSF

 

Davenport 1.28  3 13.5  .790  .333  4.5  9  944  251.5  '96-'05=10

23.5*0.0075+ 0.806 + 0.638 +0.10*(785.5+189.5)/2000 (Hingis)

24.5*0.0075+ 0.781 + 0.612 +0.10*(877.5+246.5)/2000 (Venus)

1.97 = 42*0.0075+ 0.853 + 0.756 +0.10*(903.5+155.5)/2000  (Serena)

[ 1.47 = 4*0.0075 + 0.75 + 0.646+  0.10* ( 609.5+334.5)/2000  Kerber)  does not meet min. GS final criteria ]

1.98 = 24.5*0.0075+ 0.917 + 0.813 +0.10*(1177+106 )/2000       (Court, open-era GSF only, singles career W-L only)

1.66 = 27.5*0.0075+ 0.803 + 0.600 +0.10*(782+192 )/2000       (BJK, open-era only GSF only )

 

Notes:  many players not analyzed (pre-'78):  Wills-Moody, Lenglen, Sukova, Maleeva, Capriati, etc.  Novotna,Vicario were.

          The "super" elite benchmarks ~ GS win%>=.65, C%+GS%>=1.5, career win%>=0.80 and winning every Slam.  Members are:  Serena, Graf, Navratilova, and Court

                    (next group includes BJK, Venus, Hingis, Clisters, Henin , Seles most due to their (C%+GS%).  Two are VERY close to 80% career wins (Venus, Clisters)

          Most elite players won GS titles over a double-digit year span (12 of 14 in the table above )

           % differences are insignificant at a certain band obviously - 1.59 vs 1.60 for example

          Seles' had the devastating knifing incident at the peak of her career (8-1 in GS finals just prior)(1st GS win '90, stabbing '93) so she must be analyzed as a 1-off

          for inclusion, minimum total GS finals is 10, noting that doubles wins are given half-credit , OR 500 career matches. Open-era only

          Tennis Hall of Fame are shown in purple shading, active players in italics

          any player's rating can easily be computed when the stats are available

          the column immed to right of rating is how many of the 4 Grand Slams the player won titles at (S/D/M)

          GSF=Grand Slam total finals  Career%=career win %   GSFW=Grand Slam final wins MP=matches played  rating is my custom formula treating total GS titles, Grand

               Slam final win%, and career win%, with respective weightings of (0.0075,1.0,1.0).  For example, Margaret Court's rating is obtained via:

               47*0.0075+ 0.917 + 0.702 +0.10*(1177+106)/2000=2.03

          I have left the table sortable so readers can sort on preferred stat;  stats are mostly from Wikipedia,ATP and WTA sites.

          It would be hard to imagine a rating much higher than 2.2 or so. 

          The last column is interesting in that it tracks well with rating and is merely career win% + Grand Slam win %.  Serena sets the mark here.

          Of note are players near 80% win in GSF (Serena,Shriver); career win% near 90 (Evert, Graf, Court)

          The Williams sisters are surefire bets for inclusion to the Hall of Fame (Serena is already top 3 using the above)

          Worthy of note are career Grand Slam (singles) holders:  Court, Billie Jean King, Evert, Navratilova, Graf, Serena

               career Grand Slam (doubles) holders:  Court, Navratilova, Shriver, Serena, Venus, Sharapova

          Sanchez-Vicario's losing record in GS finals likely just highlights how she fought to even reach Finals, where her body type/height was a disadvantage

              rivalries of note from last col:  Navratilova-Evert, Serena-Venus, BJK-Court, Henin-Clisters,  Serena-Clisters, Sharapova-Serena, Venus-Sharapova, Hingis-Davenport

          It is nearly impossible from the ranking eq'n for Serena to surpass Navratilova

 

Personal list (tentative, in order, of those I saw play):  Graf, Seles, Serena, Navratilova, Hingis, Henin.  Graf was the best female player I've seen (Seles,Serena close behind)

Players that made up for a lack of "natural" ability would include Sanchez-Vicario and Davenport.   We can run hypotheticals for Seles say.  Let's give her 200 more matches played, 3 more GS titles, and bump her career and GS win% to 0.85 & 0.75.  Her rating goes to 1.77, essentially top 5 all-time for women.  Recall she missed 10 Grand slams after her stabbing.  Her pre-stabbing record was 253-30 (89.4 win%), behind only Margaret Court (women) and well above all of the men shown below.  The ATP tracks some good indicators like record vs top 10, shown at right.  Four men have 1000+ ATP wins (Lendl, Federer,McEnroe,Connors), Edberg is just shy.  The table is sortable, sorting by C%+GS% yields ratings 1,6,1,1,1,1; sorting by career win% yields 1,1,1,10,7,6; sorting on GSF/MP yields 7,7,1,10,12,1.  The male ratings are more tightly bunched than the women.

                                   Men

 

Name  rtg    GSF  Career%  GS%  GSFW  GSFL  CareerW  CareerL 

GSF/MP 

GSspan C%+GS%

vs top 10

1  Nadal (active) 

1.79

4 27 .816 .704 19 8 1025.5 232 2.1% 15='05-'19 1.52 0.654 (T#3)
2  Federer (active)
1.75 4 31 .800 .645 20 11 1168.5 291.5 2.0% 17='03-'19 1.45 0.657 (T#3)

T3  Djokovic (active)

1.71

4 26 .806 .653 17 9 926.5 222.5 2.3%  13='08-'20 1.46

0.682 (#2)

T3 John Newcombe (open-era) 1.71 3 22 .756 .750 16.5 5.5 595 192.5 2.8% 14='63-'76 1.51 0.517

T3  McEnroe

1.71

2 17.5 .820 .686 12 5.5 1140 249.5 1.3%  16='77-'92 1.51 0.572
T3  Sampras

1.70

3 18 .755 .778 14 4 794 257 1.7%  13='90-'02 1.53 0.636
Borg 
1.65 2 15 .793 .733 11 4 640 167.5 1.9%  08='74-'81 1.53 0.700
T8 Emerson (open-era) 1.59 4 30 .673 .667 20 10 285 138.5 7.1% 12='60-'71

1.34

n/a
T8 Laver (open-era) 1.57 4 20 .787 .600 12 8 507 137.5 3.1% 15='59-'73 1.39 0.286
10  Connors
1.54 3 17 .808 .529 9 8 1327.5 316 1.0%  11='73-'83

1.34

0.500
                           
T11 Bob Bryan (active) 1.51 4 19 .726 .605 11.5 7.5 533.5

201.5

2.7% 12='03-'14  1.37  
T11 Mike Bryan (active) 1.50 4 16.5 .758 .606 10 6.5 480.5

153.5

2.6% 12='03-'14   1.36  
T13  Woodforde
1.47 4 11.5 .596 .739 8.5 3 642.5 436     1.34  
T13  Becker
1.47 3 10 .749 .600 6 4 840  282   12='85-'96 1.35 0.651 (T#3)
T13  Woodbridge

1.47

4 17.5 .634 .651 11.5 6 635 366  1.7%
  1.29  
T13  Wilander 
1.45 4 11 .696 .636 7 4 655 285.5   08='82-'89 1.33 0.500 
T13  Agassi 1.45 4 15 .751 .533 8 7 890 295   12='92-'03 1.28 0.548 
T13  Edberg 1.44 3 13.5 .732 .556 7.5 6 947.5

346.5

  12='85-'96 1.29 0.457 
19  Lendl 1.42 3 19 .790 .421 8 11 1164.5

309

1.3  10='81-'90 1.21 0.643 

 

Murray (active)               1.19     2     9     .751          .333     3     6     617.5     204.5         07= '10-'16        1.08     0.533           

          31*0.0075+ 0.798 + 0.645 +0.10*(1168.5+291.5)/2000 = 1.75  (Federer) 

27*0.0075+ 0.816 + 0.704+0.10*(1025.5+232)/2000=1.79 (Nadal) 

26*0.0075+ 0.806 + 0.653 +0.10*(926.5+222.5 )/2000 = 1.71 (Dokie)

9*0.0075+0.748+0.333+0.10*(617.5+204.5)/2000 = 1.19  (Murray )

 

The rare air of career W-L >80% W-L record includes McEnroe, Connors, Djokovic and Nadal (singles/doubles combined).  The small club of those with career W-L%>75 includes Newcombe, Sampras

Personal list (tentative, in order, of those I saw play):  Federer, Borg, Sampras, McEnroe,  [Djokovic,/Becker/ Lendl,/Mecir/Nadal ].  Federer is the best male player I've seen.  His rating as of Feb 2018 reflects this.

Worthy of note are career Grand Slam (singles) holders:  Agassi, Federer, Nadal     Grand Slam (doubles) holders:  The Woodys and Bryans

list did not treat pre Open era incl Tilden, PGonzalez  but did treat Lendl, Courier, Chang, Krickstein, Rafter, Safin, Goran, Kuerten, Bruguera, Moya, Muster, Noah, Vilas

The statistics do not seem to credit a player like Lendl as much as he deserves; Borg&McEnroe's ratings are impressive given how infrequently they played the Australian Open.  Of specific note is Lendl's low win% of GS finals, hurting his rating.  Krickstein had grit like Connors, and Mecir at his best was a wonder.

 

I am considering an adjustment to reflect longevity, when I see how high a player like Djokovic rates compared to players with a longer body of work.  Perhaps something like " + 0.10* career matches/2000".  This would spread he& a player like McEnroe out by an add'l 0.04.  If a cutoff of 500 career matches is enforced, Emerson drops off.

 

      rivalries of note from last col:  Sampras-Agassi, Edberg-Becker, Connors-Borg, Wilander-Lendl, Emerson-Laver, Federer-Nadal, Djokovic-Nadal

 

******************

there seems to some correlation to getting a career slam and total matches.  Seeing 750 matches is a loose bound (examples below this include Seles, Henin, Clisters,Davenport) to hoping for all 4 slams (Emerson & Laver are exceptions)

 

Although the formula is fairly neutral for gender, the men generally play more (best of 5 vs best of 3).  This could affect career longevity, and I am unsure how to adjust to compare genders.  The top 10 women avg 31.3 GS finals, vs the men 19.9.  This gives adj =(31.3-19.9)*0.0075 = +0.086 to men.  This is seen in that few top men show 14 or more years appearing in GS finals (3) vs (7) for women.

With this adjustment, we can combine them for a statistical ordering (male in shading):

 

Navratilova, Court/Serena, Graf, Federer, Nadal, Newcombe,Sampras,McEnroe, BJK, Evert. Borg, Shriver,  Venus/Seles

 

In order of (career win%+GSF win %) > 1.50 in order descending:

Serena, Court, Graf, Sampras/Borg/Shriver, Nadal/Navratilova, Seles/Newcombe/McEnroe

1.67       1.62    1.57                1.53                      1.52                              1.51

 

2.00 = 39*0.0075+ 0.856 + 0.803 +0.10*(881.5+148.5)/2000  (Serena)

1.58=20*0.0075+ 0.808 + 0.579 +0.10*(743.5+176.5)/2000  (Djok)  GSWP pending

20*0.0075+ 0.818 + 0.700 +0.10*(744.5+165.5)/2000   (Nadal)

 

The elite group of (10) players with GS finals/career matches >=2.5%  includes both Bryans, Emerson, Laver, Newcombe and Navratilova, Court, Serena, Graf, BJK.  Hingis is close @2.3 (she'd have to win 3 more doubles titles).  Venus is also @ 2.3, Evert @ 2.4

 


Spans for GS appearances:

I added this column July 2014, it reflects a player's longevity via the span which they appeared in Grand Slam finals (S/D/M).  The greats have above average spans it seems, which makes sense as longevity is incorporated into the rating.

 

For completeness, here is the combined male/female table for sorting (no numbering) (w/ the +0.086 for males):

 

Name  rating    GSF  Career%  GS%  GSFW  GSFL  CareerW  CareerL 

GSF/MP 

GSspan C%+GS%
Navratilova 2.07 4 58.5 .862 .658 38.5 20 1815.5 290.5 2.8% '75-'90=16 1.52
MCourt (singles only) 2.03 4 47 .917 .702 33 14 1177 106 3.7% '60-'75=16 1.62
Serena (active)
2.01 4 38 .857 .816 31 7 868.5 145.5 3.7% '98-'17=20 1.67

Graf

1.88 4 33 .887 .682 22.5 10.5 986.5 126 3.0% '86-99=14 1.57

Billie Jean King (BJK)

1.78 4 41.5 .803 .615 25.5 16 782 192 4.3% '61-'80=20

1.42

Evert 1.77 4 36.5 .892 .534 19.5 17 1367.5 165.5 2.4% '73-'88=16 1.43
Shriver 1.72 4 14.5 .739 .793 11.5 3 936 331 1.1% '81-'91=11 1.53
Venus (active) 1.65 4 23.5 .787 .638 15 8.5 829 224.5 2.2% '98-'16=19 1.46
Seles 1.65 3 13 .816 .692 9 4 639.5 144.5 1.7% '90-'96=07 1.51
Hingis  (active) 1.63 4 22 .808 .614 13.5 8.5 754 179.5 2.4% '96-'16=20 1.42
                         
Clijsters (edit pending) 1.53 2 9.5 .794 .625 5 3 581.5 151   '00-'11=12 1.42
Henin 1.51 3 12 .805 .583 7 5 548.5 132.5 1.8% '01-'07=07 1.39
Sharapova (active) 1.46 4 10 .800 .500 5 5 603.5 150.5 1.3%  '04-'15=12 1.30
Sanchez-Vicario 1.39 2 21.5 .729 .419 9 12.5 1097 407 1.4% '89-'00=12 1.15
Federer (active) 1.83 4 28 .798 .643 18 10 1144.5 289.5 1.9% '03-'17=15 1.44

Nadal (active) 

1.78

4 21 .808 .667 14 7 873 210.5 1.9% '05-'14=10 1.48
John Newcombe (open-era) 1.80 3 22 .756 .750 16.5 5.5 595 192.5 2.8% '63-'76=14 1.51

McEnroe

1.80

2 17.5 .820 .686 12 5.5 1140 249.5   '77-'92=16 1.51
Sampras

1.79

3 18 .755 .778 14 4 794 257   '90-'02=13 1.53
Borg 
1.74 2 15 .793 .733 11 4 640 167.5   '74-'81=08 1.53
Emerson (open-era) 1.68 4 30 .673 .667 20 10 285 138.5 7.1% '60-'71=12

1.34

Laver (open-era) 1.66 4 20 .787 .600 12 8 507 137.5 3.1% '59-'73=15 1.39
Connors
1.63 3 17 .808 .529 9 8 1327.5 316   '73-'83=11

1.34

Bob Bryan (active) 1.60 4 17 .725 .647 11 6 462.5

175

2.7%   1.37

Djokovic (active)

1.67

4 21 .808 .571 12 9 743.5 176.5 2.2%  '08-'16=09 1.41
Mike Bryan (active) 1.59 4 15 .755 .600 9 6 453.5

147

2.5%   1.36
Woodforde
1.56 4 11.5 .596 .739 8.5 3 642.5 436     1.34
Becker
1.56 3 10 .749 .600 6 4 840  282   '85-'96=12 1.35
Woodbridge

1.56

4 17.5 .634 .651 11.5 6 635 366  
  1.29
Wilander 
1.54 4 11 .696 .636 7 4 655 285.5   '82-'89=8 1.33
Agassi 1.54 4 15 .751 .533 8 7 890 295   '92-'03=12 1.28
Edberg 1.53 3 13.5 .732 .556 7.5 6 947.5

346.5

  '85-'96=12 1.29
Lendl 1.51 3 19 .790 .421 8 11 1164.5

309

  '81-'90=10 1.21

 

sorted by rating,  the top 6 have won at every Grand Slam, each has a rating >=1.80, each reached at least 20 grand slam final equivalents, each has a (C%+GSF%)>=1.44, and won their slams over a span of no less than 10 years.  Each has a career win% >=0.79.  (McEnroe is an exception for <20 GSF ).  Sorting by GSW%+career% gives the 10 players (no order): Serena, Court, Graf, Newcombe, McEnroe, Sampras, Borg, Shriver, Seles, Navratilova all of whom are established greats of the game.

 

===========================

*Unforced Errors (UE)

Unforced errors (7/4/2015) using the stats presented by the Wimbledon site just now, my calcs show an average of 27 (26.6) unforced errors per player per match.  This was 5748 UE in 4008 games played or 1.43 UE/game.  There being a minimum of 4 points per game (a love game), but using 6.43, this means  (1.434*7 ~10) unforced errors in 6.43*7=45 points.  This means 2 of every 9 points played is an UE, and this is top level tennis.  SO, reducing such "free points" (like double faults) can really pay dividends ...

 

*Serving Advantage

From the same Wimbledon page, 636 of the 4008 games were won by the returner.  This shows a 84% bias to the server.  Again, slight improvements in ones return game (or serving for that matter) can pay dividends ...the overall % first serve points won in those points was 64.4%.

 

*Boys to Men

(Wimbledon) former boys singles champions you might recognize:

Federer, Pat Cash, Edberg, Borg, Enqvist, Monfils, Orantes

 

*Girls to Women

Bouchard, Radwanska, Wozniacki, Zvereva, Hingis, Garrison, Austin

 

*Misc ATP stats

The stats below show either cause or effect - winners have great return of serve, and solid serving.  

 

from the site, for career return games won (%), of the big names we see (most either won GS or were finalists )

33%  Nadal

32% Agassi / Chang / Murray/ Muster/ DFerrer(F) / Djokovic /Ferrer

31% Bruguera / Costa

30% Edberg / Hewitt / DNalbandian(F) / Gustafsson / Davydenko

 

1st Serve % (all won GS  )

70%  Vilas

69% Nadal / Isner

67% Davydenko / Costa

66% Tomic/ Masur/ Karlovic

65% Roddick / Djokovic

 

% service games won  (most won GS except Philippoussis who was a finalist  )

92%  Isner

90%  Roddick

89%  Sampras

88% Federer

87% Krajicek

86% Ivanisevic / Nadal / Becker

85% Djokovic / Stich / Rafter / Philippoussis(F)

 

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