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Pro Football HOF Musings

Page history last edited by Bill McEachen 4 years, 9 months ago

(started Feb 5th 2011)

1/7/2017 congrats to 2017 finalists Isaac Bruce, Warner, Owens, Terrell Davis, and Tomlinson.  I was disappointed not to see EJames as a finalist, but this was affected by the most deserving Tomlinson.  James should get in ahead of TDavis.

1/17/2015 congrats to WR Harrison, QB Warner, WR Brown and RB Bettis on their selection as finalists

 

congrats to Ray Guy and Andre Reed on their selection

 

congrats to Finalists Jerome Bettis, Andre Reed, Tim Brown (he got in)

well, congrats to RB Faulk & WR CCarter on their selection to the Hall of Fame

 

I understand the selection process, that a lot depends on who one is up against any given year etc.

Now, ignoring the constraints, here is my unbiased eval of some slighted offensive players with supporting data/argument.  I realize some are as of yet ineligible

WR

Tim Brown  - we contrast him to HOF Largent,Monk,Lofton,Carter and Reed:

Player
Games
Recept
TDs
Yards
Rating
Largent (HOF)
200
819
100
13089
0.617
Monk (HOF)
224
940
68
12721
0.536
Lofton (HOF)
233
764
75
14004
0.516
Carter (HOF)
234
1101
130
13899
0.673
Brown (6X finalist)
255
1094
100
14934
0.598
Reed (HOF)
234
951
87
13198
0.560

 

at a glance, all have similar yardage, games but the 3 not in are strong in recept and TDs

other key stats/records:  Largent and Lofton have solid adjusted career values of 103 and 101 respectively (PBR)

Carter and Reed have adjusted career values of 98 and 97 respectively

Monk has an adjusted career value of 93

Carter stats average 0.55 TD/game (next best is Largent at 0.50)

 

RB

essentially every RB with a rating >0.700 deserves strong consideration.  This includes Tomlinson,

Martin, Bettis, James and Alexander.

Edgerrin James we will compare them  to HOF Dickerson& Curtis Martin:

Player
Games started
TDs Rush Carries
YDs Rush
TDs rec
YDs rec
Rtg
Dickerson (HOF) 136 90 2996 13259 6 2137 0.769
James (finalist)
135
80 3028
12246
11
3364
0.780
Martin  (HOF)
166
90 3329
14101
10
3518
0.746

 

James has a solid adjusted career value of 114

 

Jerome Bettis - one can simply compare him to HOF Dorsett:

Player
Games started
TDs Rush Carries
YDs Rush
TDs rec
YDs rec
rtg
Dorsett
152
77
2936
12739
13
3554
0.727
Bettis (5X finalist)
153
91
3479
13662
3
1449
0.714

 

 

Shaun Alexander - we compare him to HOF OJ Simpson:

Player
Games started
TDs Rush Carries
YDs Rush
TDs rec
YDs rec
Rtg
Simpson
135
61
2404
11236
14
2142
0.657
Alexander
96
100
2187
9453
12
1520
0.768

 

other key stats/records: **

 

QB

Warner - we will contrast him with HOF Aikman:

player
games of record
%compl
Tot Yds
TDs
INT
SBA
Win Pct
rating
Aikman(HOF) 
165
61.5
33958
165
141
3
57.0
0.557
Warner (finalist)
116
65.5
32630
208
128
2
57.8
0.607

 

other key stats/records: Warner TD/INT is superior, TDs/game superior

Warner career records (top 10): rating, various yds/att, %compl plus 4 Pro Bowls, 2 MVPs

Aikman career records (top 10): none  plus 6 Pro Bowls

effectively Warner is ahead of Aikmann in every key NFL category.  Career rating 93.7 is superb

 

McNabb - compare him to HOF Kelly (as of end 2010 season):

player 
games of record 
%compl 
Tot Yds 
TDs 
INT 
SBA 
Win Pct 
rating
Kelly  160  60.1  36516  237  175  63.1  0.482
McNabb  157 58.9  39949 231  116 62.6 0.497

 

Kelly was voted to 5 Pro Bowls and led the Bills to 4 Superbowls.  Career rating 84.4

McNabb earned 6 Pro Bowl trips and has an outstanding TD/INT=2.0.   Career rating 85.6

Kelly and McNabb have adjusted PBR values of 103 and 102 respectively

 

Anderson, Cunningham - compare them to HOF Namath:

player  games of rec  %compl  Tot Yds  TDs  INT  SBA  Win Pct  rating
Namath  129 50.1  27803  170  220  49.6  n/a (low)
Cunningham  135  56.6  34907  207  134  61.2  0.454
Anderson 172 59.3 35058 197 160 1 52.9 0.361

 

other key stats/records: as far as career top 10, neither appears in any

Cunningham was voted to 4 Pro Bowls and a career rating of 81.5.  His TD/INT is an outstanding 1.54

Cunningham stands at 107 for adjusted career value (PFR), while Namath is at 90.

Namath has 5 Pro Bowls and a career rating of 65.5 and has a TD/INT =0.77

Anderson stands at 121 for adjusted career value (PFR) and has 4 Pro Bowls.  Career rating 81.9

 

Larry Fitzgerald - compare him to HOF Alworth & Hutson:

Player 
Games 
Recept 
Yards (scrim.)
TDs 
rating
Fitzgerald*
161
865
11692 88 0.677
Alworth (HOF)
136 
940 
10395
85 
0.660
Hutson (HOF)
116 
764 
8275 99 
0.723

 

- - - - - - - -

From the above strong cases can be made for RB Martin,Alexander,James, and Bettis

Strong cases can be made for WR Carter,Reed, Brown and Fitzgerald

Strong cases can be made for Warner, Anderson, and McNabb.  There would be less consensus on Cunningham though I feel he is a solid candidate

 

Deserving of unanimous selection voting:  Tom Brady

Sure locks w/ very high vote% (QB):  Favre, Brees, Warner,Manning

 

A few "correlations" with HOF

top 10 in playoff passing yards

top 5 playoff rushing yards

top 10 all purpose yards increase odds typically

top 8 total offense yards

top 13 career TDs

top 20 rushing receiving TDs

top 14 rushing yds

top 12 rushing TDs

top 6 4Q comebacks

top 10 game winning drives (GWD)

top 10 NFL passer rating

top 8 passing yards

top 10 passing TDs

top 20 weighted AV  (top 23 raw AV)

multiple Pro Bowl selection

 

Looking at the above, 

EJames top 12 rushing yards, top 48 weighted AV, top 19 rushing TDs, top 7 rushing attempts, 4 Pro Bowls

TDavis career rank #3 rushing yards/game, 3 Pro Bowls, Superbowl MVP

IBruce  4 Pro Bowl, 4th career receiving yards, 12th career receiving TDs, 13th career receptions, 17th career yards from scrimmage

 

primary reference is http://www.pro-football-reference.com

 

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