edits xmas 2022
The next deserving candidates include Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Ricky Watters (these 3 are 2023 semi-finalists) , Steve Smith, Chad Johnson (both prelim 2022 nominees).
(started Feb 5th 2011)
1/7/2017 congrats to 2017 finalists Isaac Bruce (NOW IN), Warner (NOW IN), Owens(NOW IN), Terrell Davis (NOW IN), and Tomlinson (NOW IN). I was disappointed not to see EJames (NOW IN) as a finalist, but this was affected by the most deserving Tomlinson. James should get in ahead of TDavis.
1/17/2015 congrats to WR Harrison, QB Warner, WR Brown and RB Bettis on their selection as finalists
congrats to Ray Guy and Andre Reed on their selection
congrats to Finalists Jerome Bettis (NOW IN), Andre Reed (NOW IN), Tim Brown (he got in)
well, congrats to RB Faulk & WR CCarter on their selection to the Hall of Fame
I understand the selection process, that a lot depends on who one is up against any given year etc.
Now, ignoring the constraints, here is my unbiased eval of some offensive players with supporting data/argument. I realize some are as of yet ineligible
WR
Torry Holt
Player |
Games |
Recept |
TDs |
Yards from Scrimmage |
Rating |
AV |
Holt | 173 | 920 | 74 | 13439 | 0.655 | 123 |
Irvin | 159 | 750 | 65 | 11910 | 0.608 | 126 |
Monk | 224 | 940 | 68 | 13053 | 0.536 | 125 |
Lofton | 233 | 764 | 76 | 14250 | 0.516 | 142 |
WR
Andre Johnson
Player |
Games |
Recept |
TDs |
Yards from Scrimmage |
Rating |
AV |
AJohnson | 193 | 1062 | 70 | 14239 | 0.648 | 124 |
Largent | 200 | 819 | 101 | 13172 | 0.617 | 140 |
RB
Ricky Watters
Player |
Games started |
TDs Rush | Carries |
YDs Rush |
TDs rec |
YDs rec |
rtg | AV |
Dorsett |
152 |
77 |
2936 |
12739 |
13 |
3554 |
0.727 | 137 |
Watters | 142 | 78 | 2622 | 10643 | 13 | 4248 | 0.703 | 122 |
QB
Tony Romo (eligible 2022?)
player |
games of record |
%compl |
Tot Yds |
TDs |
INT |
SBA |
Win Pct |
rating |
Romo | 127 | 65.3 | 34803 | 253 | 117 | 0 | 61.4 | 0.383 |
Young (HOF) | 143 | 64.3 | 37363 | 265 | 107 | 1 | 65.7 | 0.424 |
CW says the lack of a SB appearance hurts Romo's chances. PFR also shows his "AV" is not as high as might be considered.
WR
Tim Brown (NOW IN) - we contrast him to HOF Largent,Monk,Lofton,Carter and Reed:
Player |
Games |
Recept |
TDs |
Yards |
Rating |
Largent (HOF) |
200 |
819 |
100 |
13089 |
0.617 |
Monk (HOF) |
224 |
940 |
68 |
12721 |
0.536 |
Lofton (HOF) |
233 |
764 |
75 |
14004 |
0.516 |
Carter (HOF) |
234 |
1101 |
130 |
13899 |
0.673 |
Brown (6X finalist) |
255 |
1094 |
100 |
14934 |
0.598 |
Reed (HOF) |
234 |
951 |
87 |
13198 |
0.560 |
at a glance, all have similar yardage, games but the 3 not in are strong in recept and TDs
other key stats/records: Largent and Lofton have solid adjusted career values of 103 and 101 respectively (PBR)
Carter and Reed have adjusted career values of 98 and 97 respectively
Monk has an adjusted career value of 93
Carter stats average 0.55 TD/game (next best is Largent at 0.50)
RB
essentially every RB with a rating >0.700 deserves strong consideration. This includes Tomlinson,
Martin, Bettis, James and Alexander.
Edgerrin James we will compare them to HOF Dickerson& Curtis Martin:
Player |
Games started |
TDs Rush | Carries |
YDs Rush |
TDs rec |
YDs rec |
Rtg |
Dickerson (HOF) | 136 | 90 | 2996 | 13259 | 6 | 2137 | 0.769 |
James (finalist) |
135 |
80 | 3028 |
12246 |
11 |
3364 |
0.780 |
Martin (HOF) |
166 |
90 | 3329 |
14101 |
10 |
3518 |
0.746 |
James has a solid adjusted career value of 114
Jerome Bettis - one can simply compare him to HOF Dorsett:
Player |
Games started |
TDs Rush | Carries |
YDs Rush |
TDs rec |
YDs rec |
rtg |
Dorsett |
152 |
77 |
2936 |
12739 |
13 |
3554 |
0.727 |
Bettis (5X finalist) |
153 |
91 |
3479 |
13662 |
3 |
1449 |
0.714 |
Shaun Alexander - we compare him to HOF OJ Simpson:
Player |
Games started |
TDs Rush | Carries |
YDs Rush |
TDs rec |
YDs rec |
Rtg |
Simpson |
135 |
61 |
2404 |
11236 |
14 |
2142 |
0.657 |
Alexander |
96 |
100 |
2187 |
9453 |
12 |
1520 |
0.768 |
other key stats/records: **
QB
Warner - we will contrast him with HOF Aikman:
player |
games of record |
%compl |
Tot Yds |
TDs |
INT |
SBA |
Win Pct |
rating |
Aikman(HOF) |
165 |
61.5 |
33958 |
165 |
141 |
3 |
57.0 |
0.557 |
Warner (finalist) |
116 |
65.5 |
32630 |
208 |
128 |
2 |
57.8 |
0.607 |
other key stats/records: Warner TD/INT is superior, TDs/game superior
Warner career records (top 10): rating, various yds/att, %compl plus 4 Pro Bowls, 2 MVPs
Aikman career records (top 10): none plus 6 Pro Bowls
effectively Warner is ahead of Aikmann in every key NFL category. Career rating 93.7 is superb
McNabb - compare him to HOF Kelly (as of end 2010 season):
player |
games of record |
%compl |
Tot Yds |
TDs |
INT |
SBA |
Win Pct |
rating |
Kelly | 160 | 60.1 | 36516 | 237 | 175 | 4 | 63.1 | 0.482 |
McNabb | 157 | 58.9 | 39949 | 231 | 116 | 1 | 62.6 | 0.497 |
Kelly was voted to 5 Pro Bowls and led the Bills to 4 Superbowls. Career rating 84.4
McNabb earned 6 Pro Bowl trips and has an outstanding TD/INT=2.0. Career rating 85.6
Kelly and McNabb have adjusted PBR values of 103 and 102 respectively
Anderson, Cunningham - compare them to HOF Namath:
player | games of rec | %compl | Tot Yds | TDs | INT | SBA | Win Pct | rating |
Namath | 129 | 50.1 | 27803 | 170 | 220 | 1 | 49.6 | n/a (low) |
Cunningham | 135 | 56.6 | 34907 | 207 | 134 | 0 | 61.2 | 0.454 |
Anderson | 172 | 59.3 | 35058 | 197 | 160 | 1 | 52.9 | 0.361 |
other key stats/records: as far as career top 10, neither appears in any
Cunningham was voted to 4 Pro Bowls and a career rating of 81.5. His TD/INT is an outstanding 1.54
Cunningham stands at 107 for adjusted career value (PFR), while Namath is at 90.
Namath has 5 Pro Bowls and a career rating of 65.5 and has a TD/INT =0.77
Anderson stands at 121 for adjusted career value (PFR) and has 4 Pro Bowls. Career rating 81.9
Larry Fitzgerald - compare him to HOF Alworth & Hutson:
Player |
Games |
Recept |
Yards (scrim.) |
TDs |
rating |
Fitzgerald* |
261 |
1432 | 17560 | 121 | 0.xxx |
Alworth (HOF) |
136 |
940 |
10395 |
85 |
0.660 |
Hutson (HOF) |
116 |
764 |
8275 | 99 |
0.723 |
- - - - - - - -
From the above strong cases can be made for RB Martin,Alexander,James, and Bettis
Strong cases can be made for WR Carter, Reed, Brown and Fitzgerald
Strong cases can be made for Warner, Anderson, and McNabb. There would be less consensus on Cunningham though I feel he is a solid candidate
Deserving of unanimous selection voting: Tom Brady
Sure locks w/ very high vote% (QB): Favre, Brees, Warner,Manning
A few "correlations" with HOF
top 10 in playoff passing yards
top 5 playoff rushing yards
top 10 all purpose yards increase odds typically
top 8 total offense yards
top 13 career TDs
top 20 rushing receiving TDs
top 14 rushing yds
top 12 rushing TDs
top 6 4Q comebacks
top 10 game winning drives (GWD)
top 10 NFL passer rating
top 8 passing yards
top 10 passing TDs
top 20 weighted AV (top 23 raw AV)
multiple Pro Bowl selection
Looking at the above,
EJames top 12 rushing yards, top 48 weighted AV, top 19 rushing TDs, top 7 rushing attempts, 4 Pro Bowls
TDavis career rank #3 rushing yards/game, 3 Pro Bowls, Superbowl MVP
IBruce 4 Pro Bowl, 4th career receiving yards, 12th career receiving TDs, 13th career receptions, 17th career yards from scrimmage
primary reference is http://www.pro-football-reference.com